The Atlas Newsletter - Volume 35

Monday, October 9th, 2023

Good morning everyone,

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The biggest news this week is, of course, the beginning of war in Israel, as hundreds of fighters from various Palestinian militant groups launched a very successful surprise attack on Israeli territory, killing hundreds as the Israel Defense Forces go on full alert, promising retaliation that will forever change the Middle East.

However, we’ve still got a lot to cover elsewhere in the world:

In Europe, Armenia and Azerbaijan continue their struggle over territory, Poland and Hungary reject EU migration policy, and the Russians plan to mine the Black Sea.

Over in the Middle East, Turkish artillery, jets, and drones bombard Kurdish and Syrian positions, and terrorists cause mass casualties at a Syria military academy graduation.

Meanwhile, in Africa, the DRC prepares for elections, the war in Sudan continues, and the United Kingdom works with Rwanda to curb migration.

In the Americas, the US House looks for a new Republican Speaker, a US carrier fleet is sent to Israel, and Colombia apologizes for purposefully killing civilians.

In Asia and Oceania, China confronts the Philippines over claimed islands and territorial waters, and Japan hosts a UN summit on AI and technology.

All in all, it’s just another day at the office. Let's dive in:

- Joshua Paulo, Sebastien Gray, Trent Barr, & the Atlas team

War in Israel

Friday, October 7th - Present, 2023: (2 Minute Read) Over 1,000 people have been killed across two days as all out war has broken out between Israel and several Palestinian militant groups, namely Hamas. The war began early on October 7th as hundreds of Hamas militants poured across the Gaza border, accompanied by 5,000 rockets. Several IDF bases were directly assaulted by the militants, some of which quickly fell to significantly greater numbers. Photos and videos began emerging of scores of militants roaming around streets, both on foot and in trucks, seemingly unopposed, as civilians attempted to shelter in buildings. For nearly a day, the IDF failed to respond in any meaningful manner, though they did begin a bombing campaign on targets in Gaza. While many speculate why this may be, it is incredibly important to note that this was a complete surprise attack, and Israeli intelligence had little expectation that an attack would occur.

The following day, on the 8th, the IDF began a counterattack and has managed to retake a number of settlements that were seized by Hamas; however, combat is ongoing in a number of places within Israel. As time has gone on, Palestinian militants have continued to fire thousands of more rockets, and Israel has launched a massive bombing campaign in Gaza, hitting over 800 targets so far. Israel has declared it is in a state of war and has vowed to completely destroy the military and political capabilities of Hamas. Casualties on both sides have been extensive, as Israel has suffered at least 700 dead and 2400 wounded, whereas Palestine within Gaza alone has suffered at least 450 dead with an additional 2,300 wounded. These figures were updated as of 12 a.m. EST on October 9th.

Though most of the combat has been centered around the Gaza Strip, the West Bank has also been distinctly active since the start of what has been called by Hamas the “Al-Aqsa Flood”. Over 300 incidents within the West Bank have been reported since the beginning of the war, as many violent clashes continue. Israel has called up tens of thousands of reservists as it both seeks to push back against Gaza but also reinforce its northern border as the prospect of Hezbollah joining the war grows ever larger.

While Hamas is the primary faction at war with Israel, the vast majority of Palestinian militant factions have joined in combat operations against the IDF.

Israeli PM Netanyahu has stated that while the war will be long and difficult, it is one that they intend to win, and that Hamas has made “a grave mistake”.

Europe

October 4th, 2023 - Over 99% of the population of Artsakh (Nagorno-Karabakh) has left for Armenia. On October 1st, in their first visit to Artsakh in 30 years, the UN estimated that between 50 and 1,000 Armenians remain out of the former 120,000. The UN’s visit has drawn significant criticism from Armenian circles. Specifically, because not only did it last just one day, but they also only arrived after 99% of the population had left. Both Armenia and the EU have taken to calling the mass exodus of Armenians “ethnic cleansing” by Azerbaijan.

October 5th, 2023 - Poland and Hungary have expressed anger at the EU’s migration policy after a European meeting in Granada, Spain. Both EU member states have accused the EU of attempting to force them to take migrants, something they are both distinctly opposed to. While the conference served many purposes, a primary one was to discuss methods to bring down the large flow of migrants into Europe, as they are quickly getting overloaded, with an estimated 250,000 arrivals so far this year.

October 6th, 2023 - British intelligence has said that Russia is intending to lay a network of mines in the Black Sea, which they say is to target civilian ships in order to “deter the export of Ukrainian grain”. Ukraine corroborated this claim, saying that Ukraine’s intelligence has seen Russia mining waters near Ukrainian ports. The alleged minings come amid times of increased strikes against Russia’s navy, which have incurred significant losses and damage totheir fleet.

Middle East

October 5th, 2023 - Over 100 individuals lost their lives in an assault on a Syrian military academy, making it one of the deadliest attacks on a Syrian army facility. This incident was unique for its utilization of bomb drones, marking an unprecedented development in a country enduring a 12-year civil war. The attack occurred just after Syria's defense minister departed from the ceremony. According to Syria's Defense Ministry, there were casualties at the military academy in Homs that included both civilians and military personnel. The ministry attributed the attack to "terrorist" groups.

October 9th, 2023 - Turkish strikes in northeastern Syria resulted in the deaths of 29 Kurdish security personnel and left 28 others injured at an anti-drug forces academy. Turkey had been conducting airstrikes in the region since October 5, targeting both civilian and military sites as well as infrastructure and causing casualties, as reported by Kurdish authorities. According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a UK-based monitor, a Turkish warplane struck another training center on the outskirts of Al-Malikiyah at midnight, resulting in the deaths of 30 members of the Kurdish internal security forces (Asayish) and the injuries of 37 others.

Africa

October 8th, 2023 - DRC President Felix Tshisekedi has officially submitted his candidacy for the nations’ elections due December 20th. He now runs against a number of other notable DRC politicians, as well as a Nobel Peace Prize winner. However, analysts say he has a high chance of victory due to his opposition being largely fractured. While the incumbent president has had a tumultuous presidency, many still believe he is the one best suited for office.

October 9th, 2023 - At least three civilians have been killed after shells fell upon a hospital in northern Khartoum, Sudan. The damage to the hospital worsens the country’s already collapsed healthcare system, where more than 70% of its hospitals are inoperable. The Al-Nau hospital, where the shells hit, is one of the last that remain open in the area. It is unclear if the damage suffered was enough to harm the hospital's operation, but it certainly does not contribute positively.

October 9th, 2023 - The UK’s Supreme Court case battle for whether it is lawful and safe to deport illegal immigrants and illegal asylum seekers from the UK to Rwanda has begun. The UK government policy would seek to deport all people who are entering the country legally to selected partner states that are willing to receive them or to their home country. So far, Rwanda is the only country selected as a partner state. While Rwanda and the UK government maintain that Rwanda is safe, a UK court of appeals struck down the policy in June. PM Rishi Sunak has now taken the battle to the supreme court, as it is one of the primary policies for his “Stop the Boats” campaign, which aims to slow the flow of illegal immigrants to the country through oftentimes dangerous means.

The Americas

October 7th, 2023 - The race to succeed Kevin McCarthy as Speaker of the US House of Representatives is in full swing, offering Republicans a choice between two distinct paths for their party and Congress. The leading contenders, House Republican Whip Steve Scalise and House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan, share similar conservative policy stances. They both oppose abortion and gun control, advocate for stricter immigration measures, seek to reduce government spending, and support Donald Trump. However, their markedly different leadership styles could significantly influence the future operation of House Republicans, with Jim Jordan being a fast-paced spitfire and Steve Scalise being an old-school Reaganite conservative.

October 8th, 2023 - The United States has announced the deployment of an aircraft carrier, its accompanying carrier strike group, and aircraft to the eastern Mediterranean. Additionally, the U.S. will provide Israel with extra equipment and ammunition. This decision comes in response to a surprise attack by Hamas and other Palestinian groups on southern Israel, which President Biden has referred to as an "unprecedented and alarming attack." At least nine American citizens are considered missing or dead in the attacks.

October 5th, 2023 - The Colombian military has issued an apology for the wrongful killing of thousands of civilians, who were falsely labeled as left-wing insurgents to inflate the military's combat achievements during the country's armed conflict. A thorough investigation revealed that, between 2002 and 2008, the military was responsible for the deaths of 6,402 civilians who were misrepresented as rebels, a practice known as "false positives." During a gathering attended by the mothers of some victims, the defense minister characterized these killings as "shameful" and admitted, "they were not insurgents." The commander of the Colombian army, Luis Ospina, acknowledged that "painful and inexcusable acts were committed by some members of the national army." The military's objective was to create the perception of victory in its struggle against the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) guerrilla group. Soldiers have come forward to testify that they faced coercion from their higher-ups to inflate their "kill rate" and were promised promotions or additional days off as rewards.

Asia and Oceania

October 5th, 2023 - The Chinese Coast Guard issued warnings toward four Filipino vessels for entering the waters near the contested Ren'ai Reef. Gan Yu, spokesman for the Chinese Coast Guard, stated that two supply vessels and two vessels from the Philippines Coast Guard had entered these waters without Chinese government approval. The Chinese stated that they monitored their movements to prevent the transportation of illegal construction materials to a stranded warship in Ren'ai Reef. Gan urged the Philippines to cease these "infringing activities", and emphasized China's sovereignty over the Nansha Islands and their adjacent waters, including Ren'ai Reef. The Nansha Islands are part of the Spratly Islands, which are internationally recognized as Philippine territory; however, China lays claim to the islands.

October 9th, 2023 - The UN's internet policy forum commenced in Kyoto, Japan, focusing on AI and countering disinformation. The deliberations from this Internet Governance Forum will inform the Hiroshima AI Process, wherein the G7 nations will establish AI-related rules. Taro Kono, Japanese Digital Minister, stressed the importance of broader participation in discussions during a panel titled "Understanding 'Data Free Flow with Trust (DFFT)." Over 6,000 attendees from government, business, and educational institutions will partake in 300+ talks addressing subjects like cybercrime and the information gap resulting from internet accessibility disparities.

• The Red Cross issues guidelines for civilians on cyberwarfare - Anthony J. Daw

• Netanyahu announces targets in Gaza, cuts off supplies to Palestine - Bianca Bridger

• Several people arrested in Mexico for manufacturing bomb drones - Narcosis

• Fighting continues in Southern Israel - OurWarsToday

• Hamburg experiences bomb threat on Iranian airline - Tessaron

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