The Atlas Newsletter - Volume 38

Monday, November 6th, 2023

Good morning everyone,

Undoubtedly you missed us last week. We missed you too. Don’t worry, we’ve a lot lined up for you today, so let’s jump right in.

In Europe, there’s a hostage situation at a German airport, and Europe meets to discuss its future in space.

Over in the Middle East, the war between Israel and Gaza continues, and the Houthi Rebel’s fire at Israel.

Meanwhile, in Africa, King Charles visits Kenya, the US prepares to remove several African nations from an economic deal, and France seizes 2,000lbs of cocaine off the coast of West Africa.

In the Americas, Uruguayan government officials resign over potential corruption, Nicaragua issues pardons, and El Salvador’s President Bukele is approved to run again in next year’s election.

In Asia and Oceania, Japan seeks new Asian allies, fighting intensifies in Myanmar, and India and Nepal face disasters.

It’s just another day at the office. Let's dive in:

- Joshua Paulo, Sebastien Gray, Trent Barr, & the Atlas team

US Forces Under Attack in Iraq

Sunday, November 5th, 2023: (2 Minute Read) The Islamic Resistance of Iraq, an Iran-backed umbrella group of various Shia militias, has claimed responsibility for several attacks over the past few weeks on American forces stationed throughout Syria and Iraq. The attacks are directly linked to US support for Israel during their recent fight in Gaza, with the Pentagon promising escalatory retaliation should these attacks continue.

Well over a dozen drone, rocket, and mortar attacks have occurred on US installations throughout the region, leading to dozens of injuries and at least one death. The United States has, in response, increased it’s military presence in the area, with at least 900 troops deployed to the Middle East following these attacks. There are already at least two aircraft carriers and their accompanying escorts on station in the region, as well.

The US has also responded with force to these attacks. The Department of Defense released a statement in which they announced that United States forces targeted two facilities in eastern Syria operated by the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and affiliated groups.

The DoD made it clear in their statement that the US will not pull back any resistance against Iranian proxies, saying in a statement that “we will not hesitate to take further necessary measures to protect our people.” National Security Council spokesman John Kirby noted that, at the direction of President Biden, the Department of Defense has ordered the military to take steps in preparing for escalation to ensure proper posturing “both in terms of being able to defend our forces and respond decisively as needed.”

The DoD also clarified that the strikes “are separate and distinct from the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas and do not constitute a shift in our approach to the Israel-Hamas conflict,” they said in a statement. “We continue to urge all state and non-state entities not to take action that would escalate into a broader regional conflict.”

John Kirby noted an uptick in “rocket and drone attacks by Iranian-backed proxy groups” against American personnel in the region, adding that the United States is “deeply concerned about the potential for any significant escalation of these attacks in the days ahead.”

The United States Secretary of State flew for a surprise visit to Iraq this week, meeting with the Iraqi Prime Minister, presumably in regard to these attacks. Prime Minister Mohammed Shia' Al Sudani left for Iran shortly after the meeting.

While speaking with reporters at the White House, John Kirby accused Iran of “actively facilitating” attacks against American forces in Iraq and Syria.

It is expected that further strikes will be carried out by both sides as the conflict worsens.

Europe

November 5th, 2023 - A hostage situation at Hamburg Airport brought the facility to a halt after a man drove through security gates and onto the airfield with his 4-year-old child in the vehicle with him. The suspect, a Turkish citizen, fired twice into the air with a weapon before parking his car underneath a Turkish Airlines plane that was awaiting takeoff. The suspect then ignited two incendiary devices next to his car, which were quickly extinguished by airport firefighters. Local media reported the suspect demanded to leave Germany and return to Turkey alongside his daughter, who was reported abducted to German police by her mother, the suspect’s ex-wife. Police reported the suspect abducted his daughter due to an ongoing custody battle between the ex-spouses, with the suspect most likely seeking to flee to Turkey in order to escape any punishment and gain sole custody of his child. Hamburg police released a statement when the incident was concluded, stating that “the hostage situation is over. The suspect has left the car with his daughter. The man was arrested by the emergency services without resistance. The child appears to be unharmed.”

November 6th, 2023 - Both the EU and the ESA (European Space Agency) are meeting in Seville, Spain, in order to discuss Europe’s future in space. Europe’s space ambitions face a number of significant obstacles, which during today’s and tomorrows meetings the ESA hopes to find a way to overcome. The world’s growing space industry is so far leaving Europe behind, particularly since they have none of their own launchers. Previously, they had relied on either Russia or the US to launch their rockets, however they were of course cut off from Russia’s launchpads following the invasion of Ukraine. Europe’s next-gen Ariane 6 rocket, which has already faced 4 years of delays, has now had its first flight pushed back till next year. To properly address Europe’s space concerns is going to take a significant amount of funding, to which ESA Chief Joseph Aschbacher said “we are not in a very promising economic situation”.

Middle East

November 6th, 2023 - Gaza has effectively been cut in two as Israeli forces have pushed all the way to the coast in Gaza, moving to encircle Gaza City entirely. Intense urban combat has began in several Gaza towns, in particular around Beit Hanoun in northeastern Gaza. The IDF’s ground operations come amidst a continued extensive bombing campaign within Gaza, which combined with their ground operations have now led to over 10,000 people within Gaza being killed, including 4,100 children. Israel’s military has announced that a one-way corridor has been opened in order for civilians still within the north to escape to the south, however it remains uncertain if very many will make the journey. Previously, Israel had announced opportunities for civilians to evacuate to the south, however the announcements came alongside widespread bombings throughout Gaza, making evacuations unsafe to do. Hamas has said they are prepared for negotiations on a two-state solution, and a ceasefire. However, the Israeli government has continued stating their intent to completely destroy Hamas. Across the world, protests in support of Palestine have been held as people call for a ceasefire.

October 31st, 2023 - Yemen’s Houthi rebel group has launched several missiles and drones at Israeli targets, all of which either fell short of their targets or were shot down by Israeli defence systems. The Houthi’s stated the attempted strikes were in response to the “Israeli-American” aggression on Gaza, and stated their intention to carry out more attacks. Israel had not confirmed the attacks came from Yemen, but rather stated they had intercepted missiles “from the area of the red sea”.

Africa

November 3rd, 2023 - British Monarch King Charles has concluded his visit to Kenya, which is his first visit as monarch to any commonwealth country. Many, particularly Kenyans, were hopeful that the visit would start to address the dark legacy of British colonialism, however many say that it significantly fell short of what they were hoping for. The King on his visit stated that “the wrongdoings of the past are a cause of the greatest sorrow and the deepest regret”, and that “there can be no excuse” for the “abhorrent and unjustifiable acts of violence committed against Kenyans”. However, notably missing from his statements during his visit, was a direct apology. The King’s words echo that of King Philippe of Belgium, who a number of months ago expressed “regrets” for the abuses committed under Belgian colonial authority in the DRC, but never expressly apologized for them.

October 31st, 2023 - US President Joe Biden has announced plans for the expulsion of Gabon, Niger, Uganda, and the Central African Republic (CAR) from the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which was a special US-Africa trade deal which gave select nations duty-free access to 1,800 different American products. Biden said the 4 countries had committed “gross violations” of human rights, and/or had suffering democracies. The announcement of the removal of Uganda from the deal follows several months of deliberation on the matter after Uganda passed its controversial “Anti-Homosexuality Law” in May. Uganda has already seen lessened trade with the US after the passing of the law, which is likely to continue following their expulsion from AGOA.

November 4th, 2023 - The French Navy announced the seizure of 885kg (1950lbs) of cocaine off the coast of West Africa, from a 15m (49ft) long fishing vessel. The vessel had left Latin America a number of days prior to the French raid, and was carried out by France’s Helicopter Carrier Mistral, which is their second largest navy vessel. French authorities said the apparent path of the boat would have likely seen the drugs end up in Europe. They also stated the raid was taken acting on intelligence from Brazilian, American, and British partners.

The Americas

November 5th, 2023 - Three Uruguayan government officials resigned on Sunday following an investigation into an internationally wanted drug smuggler’s acquisition of a Uruguayan passport. A fourth official, Foreign Minister Francisco Bustillo, also resigned on Wednesday following the release of a phone call that took place in 2022 where the ex-Foreign Minister suggested withholding evidence. Bustillo told the former Deputy Chancellor, Caroline Ache, to allegedly lose her phone, which contained chat logs in which Uruguay's Deputy Minister of the Interior, Guillermo Maciel, warned the latter of the dangers that Marset posed. "He's a very dangerous heavy drug trafficker," Maciel said in the chat with Ache before the passport was issued. Ache further accused Roberto Lafluf, one of President Pou’s chief advisors, of summoning her in November 2022 to the seat of the government alongside Macie and had asked them both to delete the messages exchanged about the drug dealer Marset and to certify before a notary that the conversation had not taken place. Ache refused.

November 5th, 2023 - Nicaragua pardoned 21 Honduran prisoners on Sunday including a leader of the Mara Salvatrucha (MS-13) criminal gang who was arrested immediately upon entering the country. Those pardoned will be returned to Honduras while the government has said they also plan to pardon Costa Rican prisoners and return them to their home country in a similar move. This comes after Nicaragua previously pardoned 43 more Honduran prisoners and returned them to Honduras on October 18th. David Elias Campbell Licona, also known as "El Viejo Dan", was included in the transfer. Campbell was a leader of MS-13 and has been wanted by Honduran authorities on money laundering and gang charges since 2016, before being captured in Nicaragua in June 2021. Campbell is also wanted in the United States where he stands accused of  the illegal possession of firearms, murder, and the import of cocaine into the US.

November 3rd, 2023 - El Salvador’s election tribunal approved President Nayib Bukele's candidacy in next year's presidential election on Friday, following the president’s file for reelection in 2022. The tribunal discarded a 2014 ruling that disallowed former presidents from running for office again for 10 years in 2021, a move that the United States Embassy to El Salvador condemned as a ruling that “undermines democracy,” while the Chargé d'Affaires compared the ruling to the rise of Venezuela’s Hugo Chávez. Members of the election tribunal are elected by Congress; four of the five officials voted in favor of allowing Bukele to run for reelection, with the fifth abstaining from the vote. Bukele has enjoyed a significant rise in popular opinion following crackdowns on gang-related activities, which led to a significant drop in violent crime. Crackdowns brought 2022’s homicide count to 495, a major decrease from 2019’s 2,398 when Bukele entered office. A poll conducted by the Center for Citizen Studies at Francisco Gavidia University gave New Ideas, Bukele’s party, nearly 70% support, compared to just over 4% for its closest competitor.

Asia and Oceania

November 5th, 2023 - Prime Minister Fumio Kishida recently concluded a three-day diplomatic mission to Southeast Asia, marking his inaugural official visits to Malaysia and the Philippines as Japan's leader. The primary aim of this trip was to reinforce Japan's security and defense ties with these nations, who stand to benefit from Tokyo's newly launched military aid program. This underscores Japan's proactive approach to regional security, driven by mounting concerns that its existing defense alliance with the United States might not be sufficient to counterbalance China's expanding military capabilities.

October 27th, 2023 - Several Burmese (Myanmar) military stations and police stations were hit across the Northern Shan state in Myanmar in a major escalation. The Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army Kokang forces claimed responsibility for the attacks and urged other militant groups to join the offensive after a largely successful night, which they did. The Chinese Foreign Ministry is urging for a ceasefire between rebel groups and the ruling junta as fighting continues.

November 3rd, 2023 - Several natural and manmade disasters are causing issue around the Indian subcontinent. In Nepal an earthquake led to the death of 150 people, with an even worse earthquake expected. The US Geological Survey measured a magnitude 5.6 and Nepal’s National Earthquake Monitoring and Research Centre a 6.4. The earthquake struck the rural hill areas in Western Nepal. New Delhi, one of the most polluted cities on the planet, is experiencing it’s annual smog, which has shut down schools and businesses for days. “As pollution levels continue to remain high, primary schools in Delhi will stay closed till 10th November,” Delhi state’s education minister Atishi posted on X, formerly known as Twitter.

• Boeing confirms cyber incident after threats - Warez

• Israeli Aircraft strike Palestinian ambulance convoy - Joshua Paulo

• Blinken makes surprise visit to Iraq, causing protests - Trent Barr

• Former FTX CEO convicted on several charges - Liam Fegan

• Bahrain severs ties with Israel - Tessaron

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