The Atlas Newsletter - Volume 39

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Let’s jump right in today.

In Europe, Spain faces widespread protests, Romania buys American weapons, and Iceland faces an impending natural disaster.

Over in the Middle East, Israel continues their invasion of Gaza, Yemen’s Houthi’s shoot down an American drone, and Saudi Arabia hosts a summit on the Israel-Gaza war.

Meanwhile, in Africa, Sudan’s RSF carry out a large massacre, Gabon’s military leadership sets an election date, and 100 civilians are killed in a Burkina Faso town by unclear perpetrators.

In the Americas, Brazilian civilians are released from Gaza into Egypt, Honduras experiences large anti-government protests, and Colombia’s ELN releases a hostage.

In Asia and Oceania, the US and South Korea warn of North Korea attacks, China and the Philippines continue their naval spat, and the Japanese military faces budget cuts.

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Let's dive in:

Biden and Xi to Meet

Friday, October 7th - Present, 2023: (1 Minute Read) President Biden is scheduled to meet in person with Chinese President Xi Jinping this week in California, with officials anticipating a positive impact on alleviating tensions in the bilateral relations between the United States and the People’s Republic of China. Experts have questioned this optimism, but even so, this meeting assumes heightened significance against the backdrop of a period deemed ripe for intensive diplomatic efforts.

The two are meeting at a secure location in San Francisco on November 15, however, Senior administration officials have communicated that they will withhold the specific details of the venue due to considerations of “operational security”.

When announcing the meeting, the White House said in a statement that that Biden and Xi are expected to discuss the relationship between the United States and China, listing, “issues in the U.S.-PRC bilateral relationship, the continued importance of maintaining open lines of communication, and a range of regional and global issues.”

A senior administration official said the two leaders will also discuss "managing competition responsibly," along with several international issues, including the war in Ukraine, the Israel-Hamas war, and the growing conflicts in the Middle East.

US-Chinese relations are at perhaps the most tumultuous in decades, and despite the Biden administrations optimism, experts say to expect little-to-no improvement in these tensions following the talks.

“We’re not talking about a long list of outcomes or deliverables,” a senior administration official told reporters. “The goals here really are about managing the competition, preventing the downside risk of conflict and ensuring channels of communication are open.”

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Europe

November 12th, 2023 - An estimated 80,000 people took to the streets of Madrid on Sunday in opposition to Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez's plans to grant amnesty to Catalan separatists who attempted to secede from Spain in 2017. The conservative opposition has decried the deal, claiming that Sanchez is putting the rule of law and the good of Spain behind him in favor of his own political gain. The opposition claims Sanchez arranged the deal in order to secure another four years in office by forming an alliance with the Catalonian independence party, Together for Catalunya, also known as Junts. Sanchez, however, claims that pardoning those who participated in the attempted secession would calm tensions within Catalonia, while officials from Sanchez’s party claim that it is a step toward forming a “stable government.” An additional 6,000 people demonstrated in Barcelona, while 30,000 others in Granada and 50,000 more in Seville also took to the streets to voice their displeasure. Protests also engulfed other cities, such as Malaga, Palma, and Valencia.

November 9th, 2023 - The US has announced its approval of the sale of 54 M1A2 Abrams tanks to Romania in order to “equip them to fulfill an advanced role in NATO”. The tanks are apart of a larger arms deal valued at approximately 2.53 billion USD, which includes a large array of other weapons as well as relevant training from US military personnel. 

November 13th, 2023 - Iceland over the weekend experienced over 2,000 earthquakes within 48 hours, which has prompted the government to declare a state of emergency near the Mount Fagradalsfjall volcano as fears of a volcanic eruption grow ever larger. Since late October, Iceland has experienced approximately 20,000 earthquakes, and on Friday (October 10th) detected an underground magma formation which Icelandic officials are saying poses a “significant likelihood” that an eruption will take place in the coming days. Several thousand people in a nearby town have been evacuated. Luckily, the region is sparsely populated so very few places had to be evacuated.

Middle East

November 9th, 2023 - US National Security Council spokesman John Kirby announced that the US and Israel managed to come to an agreement to allow for a 4-hour daily pause on Israeli military operations in Gaza in order to allow for humanitarian aid and refugee movement. The pause has been criticized by many for falling short of the outright ceasefire that many protests worldwide are calling for. The announcement comes after Israeli troops have essentially surrounded Gaza City as they begin pushing into the city’s outskirts. Within Gaza, according to the Palestinian Ministry of Health the death toll has now crossed 11,000. A total which is expected to rise further as combat operations continue, and less than half of Gaza’s hospitals remain functional due to loss of power, supplies, and infrastructure damage.

November 8th, 2023 - Yemen’s Houthi Rebels successfully shot down an American MQ-9/REAPER drone while it was flying over international waters in the Red Sea. After initially neglecting to confirm the shootdown, the shootdown was eventually confirmed by US officials. The Houthi’s in their statement originally claiming the shootdown claimed it was flying in Yemeni territorial waters. “With the help of God Almighty, our air defenses were able to shoot down an American MQ9 aircraft while it was carrying out hostile, monitoring and spying activities in the airspace of Yemeni territorial waters and within the framework of American military support for the Israeli entity. It was shot down, with God’s help, with the appropriate weapons”.

November 11th, 2023 - Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi met in person for the very first time at a summit hosted in Saudi Arabia in order to address the Israel-Gaza war. The summit gathered 57 different leaders, and demanded the UN Security Council take a “decisive and binding decision” in order to establish a ceasefire in Gaza. The summit shows the growing relationship between Saudi Arabia and Iran, who up until very recently were fighting proxy-wars against each other. The war in particular has seen growing cooperation due to the two parties mutual interest in the Palestinian cause. The summit condemned “Israeli war crimes”, and stated that the war was an Israeli  “war of revenge” rather than that of “self-defence”, as Israel has stated.

Africa

November 12th, 2023 - Local activists and human rights organizations have claimed that 1,300 civilians were massacred by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and several allied Arab militias amidst Sudan’s brutal civil war. The massacre took place across three days, and targeted the Massalit tribe. The Massalit have previously been targeted by the RSF in what many are calling ethnic cleansing. In June, 500 Massalit civilians were also killed in the West Darfur capital of el-Geneina, the outskirts of which being where the most recent massacre took place. The massacre took place after the RSF forced the Sudanese military out of a nearby military base.

November 13th, 2023 - Gabon’s military spokesman has announced that in August of 2025 the nation is to have “free” elections set for August of 2025, which will return it to civilian rule. The military, under General Brice Oligui Nguema, has headed the country since August 30th when it led a coup against President Ali Bongo who had won an election that both the military and opposition said was fraudulent. After the initial coup, the military stated civilian rule would be re-established after a “transition period”, but until now had not provided a timeline for how long this period would be. 

November 8th, 2023 - 100 people were killed in a massacre in the Burkina Faso village of Zaongo by thus far unknown perpetrators. Images began circulating online which showed a large number of civilians, mostly women and children, having been shot and killed. Some local media has taken to blaming the military, calling it a reprisal attack after the military had been ambushed nearby Zaongo two days prior. Zaongo for the past few years has been accused of nearby villages of collaborating with militant groups operating in the country, due to the village being “one of the few that hasn’t been cleared out”. Despite the accusations, the military has not commented officially on the massacre, and it remains unclear who is responsible, whether it be the military or militant groups in the area.

The Americas

November 12th, 2023 - Over two dozen Brazilian civilians were released from Gaza into Egypt after weeks of entrapment inside the warzone, which has taken the lives of an estimated 11,078 people. The 32 Brazilians were denied departure from Gaza for weeks before their eventual release, an event that has driven a wedge between Israeli-Brazilian relations. Two Brazilians remained in Gaza, citing personal reasons, the Foreign Ministry said in a statement. In total, 17 children, nine women, and six men left through the Rafah crossing into Egypt, like many other foreign nationals. The group is expected to return to Brazil on Monday, and plans have been made to meet with Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, Brazil’s president. Brazilian diplomats told Reuters they could not understand Israel’s hesitancy to facilitate the release of the civilians following President Lula’s balanced criticism of the Hamas attacks with calls for a ceasefire.

November 11th, 2023 - Thousands of Hondurans took to the streets of the nation’s capital on Saturday to protest what they claimed was an attack on democracy within the nation. An estimated 10,000 people took part in the protest, marching down the streets of Tegucigalpa in a protest that ended without incident. The protest was in response to Honduras’ President, Xiomara Castro’s, ruling party handpicking a new chief prosecutor despite making up a minority of Congress. The president’s party, the Liberty and Refoundation Party, utilized a committee vote in which the party held the majority in order to elect the official, a move that the opposition claims to be unconstitutional. The Honduran constitution dictates that 86 votes are needed from the 128-member legislature in order to elect the attorney general; however, it also gives the committee the power to pick an interim chief prosecutor if the post is vacant.

November 9th, 2023 - The father of a Liverpool soccer player was released by a Colombian leftist paramilitary group known as the National Liberation Army (ELN) on Thursday after weeks of negotiations between the government and the paramilitary group. The father, Manuel Diaz, was taken hostage at gunpoint by the ELN in northern Colombia on October 28, merely two months after a six-month ceasefire between government forces and the ELN was reached in August. The ceasefire is one of many that have been facilitated by the Colombian President, Gustavo Petro, in an effort to end the over 60-year civil conflict, which has led to the deaths of an estimated 450,000 people. Despite weeks of captivity by the paramilitary group, Mr. Diaz has stated that he will not leave Colombia. "My aspirations are to continue in my town because I have my entire family in my town," he told the press. "The government has given me impressively strong and great support. I trust and have faith that it will provide me security to be in Barrancas."

Asia and Oceania

November 12th, 2023 - In a press conference adjoined to a meeting between South Korean President Yoon and U.S. Defense Secretary Austin, President Yoon lauded U.S. and South Korean defense arrangements, but warned against provocations from the North. He drew several parallels between the Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Hamas wars and told press that North Korean provocations would be “resolutely punished”. He specifically called for South Korea and the U.S. to be ready to repel and destroy a “Hamas-like” attack from North Korea into Northern South Korea townships from infiltrators.

November 9th, 2023 - The Chinese Coast Guard has claimed that five Filipino ships violated Chinese territorial waters adjacent to the Spratly Islands. The ships involved were allegedly two small transport ships and three Coast Guard ships. China stated, “China has indisputable sovereignty over the Nansha Islands, including Second Thomas Shoal, and its adjacent waters. The Philippines’ actions violate China’s territorial sovereignty, violate the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea, and violate its own commitments. We urge the Philippines to immediately stop its infringing actions.” Both nations claim the disputed territory and have regularly clashed over them in the past months.

November 10th, 2023 - Japan is being forced to trim down its ambitious five-year, 43.5-trillion-yen defense expansion, designed to discourage a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan, due to a significant decline in the value of the yen. According to several sources familiar with the situation, the yen has depreciated by 10% against the dollar since the introduction of the plan in December. This military spending package is one of the largest Japanese defense budgets in decades, aimed to counter the growing tensions in the region and set to overturn the prevailing Japanese ideal of pacifism and diplomacy.

• Boeing confirms cyber incident after threats - Warez

• Israeli Aircraft strike Palestinian ambulance convoy - Joshua Paulo

• Blinken makes surprise visit to Iraq, causing protests - Trent Barr

• Former FTX CEO convicted on several charges - Liam Fegan

• Bahrain severs ties with Israel - Tessaron

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