The Atlas Newsletter - Volume 43

Monday, December 11th, 2023

Good morning everyone,

Let’s jump right in today.

In Europe, Six French teenagers have been found guilty of charges relating to the murder of Samuel Paty, Denmark bans Koran burnings, and the United States charges Russian aligned soldiers with war crimes.

Over in the Middle East, Egypt is holding an election, a Lebanese soldier is killed by Israel, and China accepts a Taliban ambassador.

Meanwhile, in Africa, the Sudanese military fires upon a Red Cross convoy, Burundi’s former PM is sentenced to life in prison, and the EACRF withdraws from the DRC.

In the Americas, Venezuelan President, Nicolas Maduro, is set to meet with the President of Guyana, a fire in a Landless Workers’ camp killed nine people, and President Zellensky has been invited to the White House.

In Asia and Oceania, China and the US stand off in the South China Sea, Singapore and China meet, and Japan announces humanitarian aid to Ukraine.

It’s just another day at the office. Let's take a look:

- Joshua Paulo, Sebastien Gray, Trent Barr, & the Atlas team

Confrontations in the South China Sea

Sunday, December 10th, 2023: (2 Minute Read) China's continuing claim over the South China Sea has been a source of longstanding geopolitical tension and international scrutiny. This maritime region, rich in natural resources and vital sea routes, is subject to several overlapping territorial claims involving China and several Southeast Asian nations. China's expansive territorial assertions, marked by the construction of artificial islands and military installations, have sparked concerns among neighboring countries and drawn the attention of the international community.

Chinese ships fiercely defend this area around their claims in the South China Sea, with force if necessary. In recent weeks, the number of incidents between Chinese vessels and those of neighboring nations has increased dramatically, to include confrontations with Vietnam, the United States, Australia, Japan, and most commonly, the Philippines.

On December 4th, a US warship, the USS Gabrielle Giffords (LCS-10), was confronted by Chinese vessels as it entered the disputed waters of the Second Thomas Shoal (Ren'ai Jiao) in the South China Sea. China stated the movement “infringes China’s sovereignty and safety, disrupts regional peace and stability, and violates international law and the basic norms of international relations." However, the United States maintains that the vessel “was conducting routine operations in international waters in the South China Sea, consistent with international law,” adding that “the operations demonstrate we are committed to upholding a free and open Indo-Pacific region.”

Similar incidents have occurred multiple times with the Philippines, though often leading to more violent confrontations. On December 9th, a day before the reported incident, the Chinese Coast Guard deployed water cannons to block the resupply of fishing ships near Scarborough Shoal, resulting in the damage of a Philippine Bureau of Fisheries vessel. The Chinese also deployed long-range sonar against the vessel, injuring some of the crew, according to the Philippines National Security Council.

The on December 10th, The Filipino supply vessels Unaizah Mae 1 and ML Kalayaan, while being escorted by the Coast Guard's (PCG) BRP Cabra (MRRV 4409) and BRP Sindangan (MRRV 4407), were intercepted en route to a routine resupply mission. The incident escalated before the convoy was water-cannoned by the Chinese Coast Guard (CCG) ship 5204 in an attempt to divert the group.

Both sides then accused the other of causing a collision between the PCG ship Unaizah Mae 1 and CCG vessel 21556.

China defended their actions in a condemnation of the Philippines for violating China's territorial sovereignty by illegally trespassing the waters adjacent to the Ren'ai Reef of China's Nansha Islands to deliver supplies to what they see as an "illegally stranded warship".

This increasingly aggressive behavior over the territorial claims in the South China Sea remain a constant point of pressure for both US-allied nations and China. Though Taiwan is often considered the center of the regional tensions, the claims in the South China Sea risk lives, disrupt sovereignty, and bypass international law on a nearly daily basis.

Europe

December 8th, 2023 - Six French teenagers who were put on trial in November on charges related to the beheading of a French history teacher, Samuel Paty, by a suspected Islamist in 2020 have been found guilty on all charges. Paty had shown his class depictions of the Islamic Prophet Muhammad in a class about freedom of expression, which angered Muslim students and their parents. Paty was killed outside the school by an 18-year-old Russian native of Chechen origin, who was killed by police following the attack. Five of the teenagers were convicted on charges of premeditated criminal conspiracy for the ambush after they allegedly pointed out the teacher to the attacker and monitored the area for him in exchange for 300-350 euros, while the sixth teenager was found guilty of false accusations and slanderous comments after she told her parents the teacher had shown caricatures of the prophet after it was established that she was not in the class when it happened. The teenagers face sentences of up to two and a half years in prison.

December 7th, 2023 - Denmark’s Parliament banned the burning of the Koran in public spaces on Thursday in an attempt to preserve relations with Islamic countries following protests that culminated in the burning of the religious text. Over 500 protests where the Koran or flags were burned have been reported since July, Justice Minister Peter Hummelgaard stated. "Such demonstrations can hurt Denmark's relations with other nations, our interests, and ultimately our safety," Hummelgaard said. Analysts have stated that the government is attempting to reach a balance in order to protect freedom of expression while also preventing attacks by Islamists that may be provoked by Koran burnings. Denmark's current ruling coalition government has argued that the law will only nominally affect freedom of expression, as other religious protests will remain legal. Violators would face fines or up to two years in prison if convicted.

December 6th, 2023 - The United States charged four Russian-affiliated soldiers with war crimes following the alleged kidnapping and torture of a US civilian in April of 2022. The civilian, who was not identified by name, was reportedly kidnapped from his home in the village of Mylove in southern Ukraine and held captive for 10 days by the Russian-affiliated soldiers. The soldiers were identified as commanding officers Suren Seiranovich Mkrtchyan and Dmitry Budnik, as well as two low-ranking soldiers who were identified as Valerii and Nazar. The soldiers stand accused of abducting the civilian before interrogating him, beating him with fists, feet, and the butt of a gun, then staging a mock execution wherein the soldiers fired a gun directly next to his head. The soldiers further threatened the civilian with forced labor as well as threats of sexual assault and death. Russia has denied any war crimes being committed during the extent of the Russian-Ukrainian war.

Middle East

December 10th, 2023 - Egypt began on Sunday its 3-day-long election process, which is due to end on December 12th. Incumbent President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi is expected to win the election, which would elect him for six more years and give him his third term. The election has drawn accusations of illegitimacy due to what critics call widespread crackdowns on opposition bodies. Only three candidates have qualified to run against al-Sisi, none of them major figures. All major oppositionists have withdrawn their candidacy, mostly amid claims of intimidation and harassment of their supporters.

December 5th, 2023 - A Lebanese soldier was killed, along with three others wounded, during Israeli shelling in southern Lebanon. While clashes between Hezbollah and Israeli forces have frequently occurred since October 7th, this is notably the first Lebanese soldier to have been killed during the conflict. UNIFIL, the UN force in Lebanon, released a statement calling for “those exchanging fire along the Blue Line” to “end the cycle of violence”.

December 4th, 2023 - China has accepted Bilal Karimi as the first Taliban ambassador to China, marking the first country to do so as the two seek to strengthen political and economic ties. Chinese Director-General of Protocol at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Hong Lei called the meeting “an important step in the development of relations between China and Afghanistan. He said that China respects the national sovereignty of Afghanistan and the decisions of the people of Afghanistan,” according to Taliban Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman Abdul Qahar Balkhi, adding that “China wants to help Afghanistan in economic and infrastructure projects within the framework of One Road and One Belt (BRI).”

Africa

December 8th - Present, 2023 - The East African Community Regional Force’s (EACRF) mandate in the DRC has expired, and the EACRF has begun its departure after the mandate was not renewed. The DRC chose not to renew the mandate after it deemed the EACRF “ineffective” at combating the M23 rebel group, which operates in the Eastern DRC. The EACRF had been taking control of places that the M23 agreed to withdraw from in order to secure those areas and had not been participating in direct combat with the M23. The DRC, however, wanted them to directly engage the rebels, something they were openly critical of the EACRF over its year-long mandate. The EACRF’s withdrawal comes at a similar time to the withdrawal of the UN, as the DRC searches for an effective means to quell the volatile east.

December 8th, 2023 - Former Burundian Prime Minister, General Alain-Guillaume Bunyoni, has been sentenced to life in prison by Burundi's Supreme Court. The former PM served from June 2020 to September 2022, when he was dismissed by President General Evariste Ndayishimiye after a rift growing between the two spawned fears of a potential coup attempt. In April 2023, Bunyoni was arrested and has been held since. On December 8th, he was sentenced to life in prison for wanting to "overthrow the government" as well as threatening the life of the President.

December 10th, 2023 - Sudanese Armed Forces announced the engagement of an International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) convoy in Khartoum. The Rapid Support Forces condemned the attack in which their forces were escorting the convoy. After more than seven hours, the ICRC confirmed the incident. The humanitarian convoy, consisting of three ICRC vehicles and three buses, all clearly marked with the Red Cross emblem, was due to evacuate over a hundred vulnerable civilians from Khartoum to Wad Madani when it came under attack upon entering the evacuation area. The humanitarian operation had been requested by and coordinated with the parties to the conflict, who gave their agreement and provided the necessary security guarantees.

The Americas

December 9th, 2023 - Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro is set to meet with the President of Guyana, Mohamed Irfaan Ali, on Thursday, a letter from the prime minister of Saint Vincent and the Grenadines stated. The scheduled meeting resulted from a conversation between Maduro, the U.N. Secretary-General, Antonio Guterres, and Ralph Gonsalves, the prime minister of Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, and the president pro tempore of the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States, which took place on Saturday. The Guyanese President’s office confirmed the meeting would take place but stressed that "Guyana's land boundary is not up for discussion." Both Brazil and the United States have expressed their desire to see the dispute reach a peaceful conclusion. "We reaffirm the United States' unwavering support for Guyana's sovereignty," the United States embassy to Brazil said in a statement.

December 10th, 2023 - A fire in a camp belonging to Brazil's Landless Workers' Movement claimed the lives of nine people and left eight more injured in the province of Para, which is situated in northern Brazil, on Saturday. The fire was caused by a short circuit during the installation of internet wiring. Community leaders stated an antenna touched the high-voltage network, setting fire to power cables as well as huts in the camp. Six of those killed were workers at the camp, while three were workers from an internet company. The injured were taken to the hospital; eight of the nine were later discharged, while another remains hospitalized with second-degree burns but is not at risk of death. Residents of the camp stated that the government is providing aid, including food, water, and assistance with the funerals, during a press conference on Sunday.

December 10th, 2023 - The White House has announced that U.S. President Joe Biden has extended an invitation to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy for discussions scheduled on Tuesday in Washington. This invitation comes at a time when the Democratic Party, led by President Biden, is facing challenges in advancing negotiations in Congress to secure additional assistance for Ukraine. Zelenskyy's office has confirmed his arrival in Washington on Monday. The agenda for the talks is expected to cover ongoing defense collaboration, particularly amid the diversion of attention caused by the conflict between Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas, which has somewhat shifted focus from Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Additionally, the fate of President Biden's $106 billion supplementary budget request to Congress, which includes $61.4 billion in aid for Kyiv, remains uncertain.

Asia and Oceania

December 4th, 2023 - China has accused the American Independence-class littoral combat ship USS Gabrielle Giffords (LCS-10) of “illegally” entering the disputed waters of the Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea, claiming that the move “infringes China’s sovereignty and safety, disrupts regional peace and stability and violates international law and the basic norms of international relations,” according to China’s Southern Theater Command. The United States 7th Fleet rejected China’s claims, telling NBC that the vessel was “was conducting routine operations in international waters in the South China Sea, consistent with international law,” adding that “The operations demonstrate we are committed to upholding a free and open Indo-Pacific region.”

December 6th, 2023 - Chinese Premier Li Qiang welcomed Lawrence Wong, the Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Finance of the Republic of Singapore, to Beijing for discussions aimed at deepening their economic ties and regional cooperation. During the meeting, the Chinese Premier urged both nations to capitalize on the chance to elevate their existing free trade agreement, fostering enhanced cooperation mechanisms for their mutual benefit. In response, Wong emphasized Singapore's high value it place on it’s relationship with China and expressed willingness to commit to further develop and strengthen this partnership.

December 10th, 2023 - During an online summit of major industrial nations, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has committed $4.5 billion to Ukraine. This financial support comprises $1 billion in humanitarian aid aimed at facilitating the country's recovery. The humanitarian assistance encompasses provisions for generators and other essential power supplies to help the Ukrainian population endure the winter, along with initiatives to clear mines planted by Russia, as stated by the Foreign Ministry. The remaining $3.5 billion will be allocated to support credit guarantees for World Bank loans extended to Ukraine. Kishida disclosed this commitment during his hosting of the Group of Seven summit in Tokyo.

• Armenia and Azerbaijan exchange prisoners - Sebastien Gray

• North Korean hackers target South Korean research institutes - Warez

• France shoots down two Houthi drones in the Red Sea - Tessaron

• Spain expels US diplomats amidst spying accusations - Joshua Paulo

• Senegalese opposition to head back to court - Sebastien Gray

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