The Atlas Newsletter - Volume 44

Friday, December 22nd, 2023

Good morning everyone,

Apologies for the abnormal schedule this week. It’s a bit different due to the upcoming holidays, but we will back to the normal posting after the holidays. That being said, let’s jump right into it.

In Europe, a Vatican Cardinal is convicted on embezzlement charges, Ukraine and Moldova begin accession negotiations with the EU while Georgia is granted candidate status, and a Russian drone explodes in Romanian territory.

Over in the Middle East, the IDF accidentally kills 3 hostages, Egypt opens further processing centers for Gaza aid, and Houthi attacks on the Red Sea bring economic consequences.

Meanwhile, in Africa, Rwanda opens its BioNTech vaccine plant, the UN faces problems in Sudan, and Egypt’s election results come in.

In the Americas, Venezuela and Guyana meet amid potential conflict, Ecuador cracks down on drug smuggling, and Venezuela punishes a major corruption related drug crime.

In Asia and Oceania, North Korea launches more missiles, South Korea experiences a trade deficit with China, and Australia battles extreme weather.

It looks like just another day at the office. Let's jump right in:

- Joshua Paulo, Sebastien Gray, Trent Barr, & the Atlas team

Russian Forces Confirm Fallback in Parts of Ukraine

December 14th, 2023: (2 Minute Read) In November, the Ukrainian Armed Forces crossed the Dnieper River and established a beachhead in Krynky, Kherson Oblast. Since then, Russian troops have launched several counterattacks, seeking to dislodge that force. The United Kingdom Intelligence Service has published an unclassified report detailing how the recently re-established 104th Guards Airborne Division of the Russian Airborne Forces (VDV) has been decimated in its frontal attacks to dislodge that beachead.

The battles have been so fraught that even President Putin confirmed the tactical retreat of Russian units in this area, albeit through a much more optimistic lens:

“Now, regarding these Krynki, well, what’s going on there. The enemy announced a big counter-offensive, nothing happened anywhere, the last attempt, at least today it looks like the last attempt, was to break through to the left bank of the Dnieper and ensure movement in the direction Crimea. Everyone talks about it, everyone knows it well, and there is nothing new here. What happened in this area: the Ukrainian Armed Forces concentrated their artillery strike on a very narrow section of the left bank, in order to save our guys and not expose them to unnecessary risk and not incur losses.”

He continued: “It was decided by the military command to move back a few meters. I’ll tell you, as a war correspondent, you understand what I’m talking about, into forest plantations – they hide personnel and protect against unnecessary losses…the Ukrainian Armed Forces entered this small section of the coast; it was approximately 1,200 meters long and about 300 meters wide. I don’t even know why they are doing this—they are pushing their people to simply exterminate. The Ukrainian servicemen themselves say that this is a one-way road. After all, in order to send personnel there, there were 80 people there all the time, now there are fewer... They only use boats, but they are under fire from artillery, drones, and other weapons.”

The 104th Division was reduced to a single brigade (31st) after the Cold War, but in August 2023, the commander of the Russian Airborne Forces, Colonel General Mikhail Teplinsky, announced that the unit would be reactivated by the end of 2023. This reactivation includes reestablishing the 104th Air Assault Division (originating from the 31st Brigade) and placing the 31st Guards Airborne Brigade under the division’s command. Additionally, the 119th and 299th Airborne Regiments will be integrated into the existing 106th and 98th Airborne Divisions. These measures are part of Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu’s planned military unit expansions in 2022. Shoigu commented in September 2023 that the division was almost complete.

Parts of the 104th entered the conflict in Ukraine in November 2023.

Europe

December 16th, 2023 - A Vatican Cardinal was convicted on embezzlement charges on Saturday following a fierce court case that lasted over two years and involved nine other defendants. Cardinal Angelo Becciu is the first cardinal to be prosecuted by the Vatican’s court and was sentenced to five and a half years in prison following the conclusion of the court case. The charges focused on the purchase of a luxury property in London’s affluent Chelsea area, during the time in which Becciu served as a senior leader in the Vatican’s Secretariat of State. The two financiers involved in the property sale were also found guilty of financial crimes and received sentences of five and a half years and six years, respectively. The initial investigation led to several other corruption allegations, which include the sending of €125,000 ($136,000) of Vatican funds to a charity run by Becciu’s brother as well as paying a woman €575,000 ($627,000) for her intelligence services.

December 14th, 2023 - Charles Michel, President of the European Council, announced that the EU had opened up accession negotiations for Ukraine and Moldova while additionally granting candidate status to Georgia. Ukraine and Moldova were first granted candidate status in June 2022, whereas Georgia’s was initially pushed back after the EU council stated that “further reforms are needed to improve the functioning of its market economy.”

December 14th, 2023 - Romania summoned Russia’s ambassador after a Russian drone landed and exploded inside Romanian territory during a Russian attack on Ukrainian port infrastructure, which is located close to the Romanian border. The site the drone hit was uninhabited and resulted in no injuries. Romania, in their statement, accused Russia of war crimes, saying, “We strongly condemn these continuous Russian airstrikes against Ukrainian civilians and civilian infrastructure, which are war crimes and must stop immediately." Notably, this is not the first incident where Russian drones have crossed into Romanian territory.

Middle East

December 15th, 2023 - The IDF admitted to accidentally killing 3 Israeli hostages held within Gaza after “the IDF mistakenly identified 3 Israeli hostages as a threat and, as a result, fired toward them, and the hostages were killed." The IDF’s statement said the three were waving a white flag when they were shot at by the group of Israeli soldiers. Two of them died immediately, while the third was wounded and ran inside a nearby building. The IDF troops reportedly said that they ceased fire when they heard calls for help in Hebrew. Following which was another burst of gunfire for unknown reasons. Eventually, in unclear circumstances, the third hostage was also killed. The IDF stated that the circumstances for how the hostages had been able to approach the group of soldiers and were not in captivity are unclear.

December 12th, 2023 - COGAT, the “Coordination of Government Activities in the Territories: Judea and Samaria and towards the Gaza Strip” (an Israeli government organization), has announced that Egypt opened two additional crossings in order to expand Egypt’s capacity for processing and performing security checks upon aid that is to enter Gaza. COGAT claims that the two checkpoints being opened will double the amount of aid able to enter Gaza through the Rafah crossing.

December 18th, 2023 - A growing list of international shipping companies have halted transit through the Red Sea after Houthi attacks on commercial shipping vessels continue. As of publication, that list includes: A.P. Moller-Maersk, CMA CGM, Mediterranean Shipping Company, Hapag-Lloyd, Evergreen Shipping, as well as BP Shipping. Notably, after BP announced the halt of shipping through the Red Sea, crude oil jumped up 3% in price. The Houthi attacks have stepped up massively since the beginning of the Israel-Gaza war, as they claim to be targeting any ships with any connection to Israel, whether it be through the company or the destination.

Africa

December 18th, 2023 - Rwandan President Paul Kagame has officially cut the ribbon inaugurating the BioNTech vaccine manufacturing plant in Kigali, Rwanda, marking the start of the process to begin manufacturing MRNA vaccines in Africa. The inauguration of the plant was additionally attended by German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock as well as Senegal President Macky Sall. BioNTech, a German biotechnology company, additionally plans to open a similar plant in Senegal. The Kigali plant is to begin training local staff in 2024 and aims to start production of vaccines in 2025, primarily focusing on malaria and tuberculosis.

December 15th, 2023 - The UN has announced it is halting all humanitarian work in the state of Al-Jazirah, Sudan, after fighting broke out on the outskirts of Wad Medani. Wad Medani has been a hub for humanitarian work ever since fighting began between the Sudanese government and the Rapid Support Forces. The UN announced they were ceasing activity there “until further notice" and have not yet resumed activity there as of this publication.

December 18th, 2023 - Egypt’s election authority has reported the results of the Egyptian election held between December 10th and 12th. Incumbent President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi has secured his third term with a reported overwhelming majority with 89.6% of the vote and a record 66.8% turnout. Hazem Omar, the runner-up, received a mere 4.5% of the vote. Sisi has drawn condemnation for a series of crackdowns on opposition during his decade-long tenure as president. None of the three opponents that ran against him were major candidates.

The Americas

December 14th, 2023 - Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro met with his Guyanese equivalent, Mohamed Irfaan Ali, in the island nation of Saint Vincent and the Grenadines on Thursday to discuss the ongoing disputed Esequibo territory located in Guyana. The two leaders released a statement following the meeting in which they promised to "not threaten or use force against one another in any circumstances" and "will refrain, whether by words or deeds, from escalating any conflict or disagreement." The statement further said the dispute will be resolved following international law, while both leaders have arranged for further discussion to take place in Brazil. The Esequibo province is widely recognized as Guyanese territory; however, the Venezuelan government has asserted claims to the region following the discovery of both oil and gas reserves. The Guyanese President’s office has stressed that "Guyana's land boundary is not up for discussion," while both Brazil and the United States have expressed their desire to see the dispute reach a peaceful conclusion.

December 14th, 2023 - 29 people were detained in Ecuador on charges related to an alleged drug smuggling operation, the attorney general's office said on Thursday. Those arrested include an ex-police general, personnel from the prisons agency, lawyers, and the Judiciary Council chief, Wilman Teran. The investigation began following the murder of the accused money launderer, Leandro Norer, who was killed while in prison. The investigation uncovered "criminal structures embedded in all levels of the state and directly linked to drug trafficking," Attorney General Diana Salazar said in a video broadcast on social media. The prosecutor’s office has stated that those detained used money obtained from illegal activities to allegedly bribe judicial officials in order to obtain legal benefits.

December 13th, 2023 - A Venezuelan citizen accused of bribing top Venezuelan officials was convicted of charges related to shipping tens of thousands of kilograms of cocaine to the United States on Wednesday. The jury found Carlos Orense guilty on three counts of drug trafficking and criminal weapons possession in a trial that spanned two weeks. Orense’s lawyer portrayed Orense as a legitimate businessman involved in the Venezuelan agricultural and oil industries. The conviction follows the testimony of one of Orense’s former associates, Antonio Arvelaiz, who revealed to the court that Orense had secured assistance from former military intelligence chief Hugo Carvajal and former general Cliver Alcala in order to transport cocaine into the United States. Arvelaiz further tesitified that a former chief executive officer of a Venezuelan-owned US oil refiner, Citgo Petroleum, aided Orense in laundering drug money in the mid-2000's.

Asia and Oceania

December 18th, 2023 - North Korea has conducted a test launch of a highly potent long-range ballistic missile, as reported by Seoul and Tokyo. This followed the country's previous launch of a short-range weapon into the Sea of Japan the day before. The Defense Ministry of Japan disclosed that the missile, suspected to be an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), traveled for approximately 73 minutes before landing in waters beyond Japan's exclusive economic zone (EEZ), approximately 250 kilometers west of Okushiri Island in Hokkaido. The successive missile tests raise concerns about North Korea's military capabilities and its commitment to regional stability, prompting heightened scrutiny from neighboring countries and the international community.

December 15th, 2023 - This year marks the first time in three decades that South Korea has experienced a trade deficit with its major trading partner, China. Data from the Ministry of Trade, Industry, and Energy reveals that from January to November, South Korea's exports to China reached $114 billion, while imports reached $132 billion, resulting in an $18 billion deficit. The monthly trade balance commenced with a $3.9 billion deficit in January and consistently remained negative throughout the year. Notably, the cumulative deficit for the year is the second highest, trailing behind a $22.4 billion deficit in trade with Saudi Arabia, the primary oil exporter to South Korea.

December 17th, 2023 - The recent heavy rainfall in northern Australia has resulted in severe flooding, leaving numerous families stranded on rooftops overnight. The downpour, described as the most substantial in decades, has isolated Cairns, a city with over 150,000 residents from the rest of the country as emergency services battle to rescue those stranded. The intense rains are attributed to the lingering impact of Tropical Cyclone Jasper, which hit the region last week and subsequently stalled over Queensland. The situation has prompted significant concern, with the floodwaters posing challenges to rescue operations. Some reports indicate that crocodiles have been swept into a town by the rising waters, underscoring the extreme conditions and dangers posed by the flooding. Weather forecasters anticipate further deluges hindering ongoing rescue efforts in the affected areas.

• Sisi wins the Egyptian elections for a third term - Sebastien Gray

• Chinese military hackers target American infrastructure - Atlas

• A car rams into the Presidential Motorcade in Delaware - Tessaron

• Japanese Prime Minister set to reform his cabinet - Joshua Paulo

• Wagner generates billions for the Kremlin in Africa - Atlas

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