The Atlas Newsletter - Volume 69

Monday, June 17th, 2024

- Joshua Paulo, Sebastien Gray, Trent Barr, & the Atlas team

South Africa Goes to the Ballot Box

June 2nd, 2024: (2 Minute Read) Cyril Ramaphosa has been re-elected as the President of South Africa, and a statement of intent regarding a Government of National Unity has been signed between the African National Congress (ANC) and the Democratic Alliance (DA) as a result of the first sitting of the National Assembly of South Africa’s 7th administration on June 14th.

In “hung provinces” such as KwaZulu-Natal, Gauteng, and the Northern Cape, the ANC, DA, and its coalition partners—the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP), National Freedom Party (NFP), Patriotic Alliance (PA), and Freedom Front Plus (FF+)—have joined forces to oust Julius Malema’s Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) and Jacob Zuma’s uMkhonto weSizwe (MK).

The inauguration of the country’s second Government of National Unity (GNU) has not quelled discontent among the parties that were not included. Jacob Zuma’s MK is threatening legal action against state broadcaster SABC News for referring to the new government as a GNU instead of a “white-led unholy alliance.”

Likewise, the parties left out of the unity government—namely, the EFF, MK, United Democratic Movement, Al Jama-Ah, United African Transformation Movement, and Pan African Congress—have formed the “Progressive Caucus” opposition alliance.

In recent days, sharp words have flown between parties. IFP spokesperson Mkhuleko Hlengwa stated on the sidelines of the National Assembly, “Julius [Malema] can go jump off the nearest cliff, actually. He is a danger to society, a danger to our democracy, a risk to the peace and stability we are trying to build. He thrives on stoking violence and does not have the collective interest of this country at heart.”

These comments came after Malema referred to the IFP as an “Oppenheimer party” due to the IFP’s substantial funding from the South African Oppenheimer family.

In addition to the EFF’s dispute with the IFP, EFF’s Floyd Shivambu used the National Assembly’s first sitting to request the invoking of “section 89 subsection 1 of South Africa’s constitution to start the impeachment process related to Cyril Ramaphosa’s involvement in the Phala Phala case.”

The Phala Phala case, also known as the Phala Phala robbery, involved an estimated $580,000 stolen from President Ramaphosa’s private game reserve ‘Phala Phala’ in Limpopo in 2020. Ramaphosa was cleared of wrongdoing by the Public Protector’s office in late June 2023, but the case has become political ammunition in recent years.

Despite threats from Jacob Zuma’s MK party and the EFF’s attempts to impeach Ramaphosa, the ANC’s Secretary-General Fikile Mbalula and the DA’s Federal Council Chairperson, Helen Zille, signed a letter of intent on June 14th.

The letter outlines the GNU’s goals, focusing on rapid economic growth, poverty reduction, land reform, job creation, and food security, among other priorities. Furthermore, the GNU has opted to follow the dispute resolution principle of “sufficient consensus” in deadlock negotiations.

In the “hung provinces” of Gauteng, KwaZulu-Natal, and the Northern Cape, the GNU’s parties have united to sideline both the MK party and the EFF.

In KwaZulu-Natal, the IFP’s Thami Ntuli has been appointed Premier, with the ANC’s Ntobeko Boyce as Speaker and the DA’s Mmabatho Tembe as deputy speaker.

In Gauteng, the ANC’s Panyaza Lesufi has been appointed Premier, while in the Northern Cape, the ANC’s Zamani Saul secured the Premier position through a cooperative agreement with the FF+.

The agreement specifies that the ANC will not undermine the self-determination of Orania, an Afrikaans-dominated enclave.

However, this loss of authority has not been well-received by the MK party.

A statement today by MK’s Spokesperson, Nhlamulo Ndhlela, on behalf of Zuma stated, “We need to educate our people that there is no GNU in South Africa. There is a white-led unholy alliance between the DA and the ANC of Ramaphosa. It is sponsored by big business. It benefits the markets, not the people.”

Ndhlela continued, “The newly formed Progressive Caucus of parties commands close to 30% of seats in the National Assembly. If it were not for electoral fraud, the number would be much higher.”

Additionally, Zuma today threatened legal action against the government after its refusal to agree to Zuma’s request for a re-election, stating, “The judges here make judgments based on what they’re thinking, not on facts. We are going to the international court so that this country does not have South African judges making such decisions.”

However, the likelihood of an international trial against the new South African government for electoral fraud, as alleged by Zuma, is extremely low.

Apart from the demands of the opposition, there are the demands of the GNU’s alliance partners, particularly those of Gayton McKenzie’s Patriotic Alliance.

The PA campaigned on a single ticket to rid South Africa of illegal foreigners and has consistently pushed for a position during negotiations where the PA can influence the country’s immigration policies.

On X, McKenzie stated, “I am in parliament with 8 other MPs. We will push for immigration reform. Laws are made in parliament, and we will apply maximum pressure to bring this issue to the forefront. Parliament shall hear ‘abahambe’ [let them go] until ‘bahambele’ [they go].”

McKenzie continued, “If I do not get a ministry, we will leave the GNU, because how can I justify supporting the GNU if I get nothing for my people?”

Europe

June 9th, 2024 - Results from Germany’s European Parliamentary elections on Sunday show an overwhelming conservative victory, with Germany’s conservative parties, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the party’s Bavarian branch, the Christian Social Union (CSU) securing 30 percent of the vote. Right-wing populist Alternative for Germany (AfD) also made significant gains despite a number of controversies shaking the party and harming its public support, with Politico reporting the party’s popularity in the polls dropping from 22 percent in January to just 16 percent in June. The CDU/CSU secured an even 30 percent of the national vote in Germany, and in second place, AfD managed to obtain 15.90 putting the party slightly above the ruling SPD which secured 13.90. The Greens saw a massive loss of popular support, securing only 11.90 percent of the vote compared to the EU’s last election cycle in 2019 when the party earned 20.5 percent of the vote, placing them in second place below the CDU/CSU. This election showcases an important change within Germany’s political sphere, with the ruling SPD and Ampel coalition members facing growing disapproval from Germans across the country. Meanwhile, Germans are returning to the established CDU/CSU which historically held power in Germany since 1982, with a brief interlude following the election of Gerhard Schroeder as Chancellor of Germany from 1998-2005.

June 14th, 2024 - The International Criminal Court (ICC) has reportedly began a probe into Russian cyberattacks on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure as possible war crimes, four officials told Reuters on Friday. One official told Reuters that the ICC probe seeks to investigate cyberattacks that targeted water and power infrastructure, jeopardizing lives of civilians in the process. These attacks allegedly cut communications from emergency responders, while attacks against mobile data services impeded civilians’ ability to receive warnings regarding missile attacks from Russian forces. Those working on the case stated that they have worked alongside Ukrainian teams in order to document and investigate a number of cyberattacks that occurred since before the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Officials told Reuters that the probe may uncover evidence of cyberattacks by Russian entities as far back as 2015, the same year Russia annexed Crimea. This investigation follows a number of cyberattacks that are believed to have been conducted by Russian entities, along with a number of arrest warrants for figures within the Russian government, including President Vladimir Putin and three other Russian figures.

June 12th, 2024 - Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan stated Armenia’s intention to withdraw from the Russian led Collective Security Treaty Organization. The PM’s statements come after several years of slowly rising tensions and anger between Armenia, Russia, and the CSTO, over what Armenia perceives as the CSTO’s failure to defend and assist them against Azerbaijan. However, a report made by Politico shows that the decision may have been made now due to Belarus having reportedly supplied Azerbaijan with arms from 2018 to 2022. Armenia and Belarus have had a wider falling out in recent days, with both countries withdrawing their ambassador from the other. Pashinyan stated that Armenia may reconsider its decision if Belarus itself withdraws from the CSTO, or if Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko issues an apology to Armenia. Notably, Pashinyan’s statement is just a statement of Armenia’s intention to withdraw, not the withdrawal itself.

Middle East

June 17th, 2024 - Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced the end of his 'War Cabinet'. He stated that the cabinet was being disbanded due to the withdrawal of former Minister of Defence and opposition politician Benny Gantz. "The Cabinet was in the coalition agreement with Gantz, at his request. As soon as Gantz left - there is no need for a cabinet anymore," said the Prime Minister. Following Gantz' resignation, Netanyahu and Israeli Minister of Defence Yoav Gallant were the only two remaining members with voting powers. Both Netanyahu and Gallant are members of the Likud party, making them completely dominant within the cabinet. The effect that the disbandment of the cabinet will have on Israel's decision making process in the war is not immediately clear. Notably, the disbandment follows National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir's request to join the cabinet.

June 10th, 2024 - The Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that they had summoned Slovenia's Ambassador to Israel in order to hold a "reprimand conversation" with her over "her government's warped decision to recognize a Palestinian state." This follows the Slovenian parliament's approval of the recognition of a Palestinian state on June 4th, a move the Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs called a "reward for terrorism," further claiming it to be harmful to ongoing efforts to negotiate the release of hostages. Slovenia's recognition followed the official recognition of Palestine by Ireland, Spain, and Norway several days prior, on May 28th. Israel issued similar condemnations to these nations, and went a step further, recalling their ambassador from each country.

June 12th, 2024 - Yemeni Houthi forces attacked a Liberian flagged, Greek owned bulk carrier named “Tutor” nearby to Al Hudaydah, Yemen. The attack took place using an explosive Unmanned Surface Vessel (USV), and left the vessel highly damaged, and reportedly killed one of its crew members. Because of the damage, the crew was forced to abandon the ship, and was evacuated by French and American naval forces. The Houthi’s claimed responsibility for the attack, claiming that “the ship was targeted because the company that owns the ship has violated the decision to ban entry into the ports of occupied Palestine,” referencing Israel. The attack against Tutor is one of many that the Houthi’s have made since the outbreak of the Israel-Gaza War on October 7th, with the Houthi’s claiming that attacks will continue “until the aggression stops and the siege on the Palestinian people in the Gaza Strip is liften.” The Houthi’s have been attacking ships of companies which either bear connection to Israel, or are bound for Israeli ports.

Africa

June 13th, 2024 - The Sudanese military government has requested the UN Security Council expand sanctions related to the ongoing crisis in Darfur to both Chad and the UAE, over what Sudan says are violations of an arms embargo placed upon the region since 2005. Sudan has continually accused the UAE of supplying the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), who they have been at war with since April of last year, with arms and finances. The Sudanese Ambassador to the UN, Ammar Mahmoud, called the UAE the “official and regional sponsor” of the RSF. The UAE has continually denied the accusations from Sudan. The US and other foreign entities have constantly spoken against any sort of foreign involvement, and called upon all “foreign actors” to cease their supply of either side.

June 14th, 2024 - The United Nations Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO in the DRC) recently announced the expansion of its troop presence in the eastern DRC province of Ituri after a sharply heightening wave of violence. The violence has primarily been driven by two groups; the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF), and CODECO. The ADF is an Islamic State affiliated group that has been responsible for approximately 100 civilian deaths since May 25th. The decision to expand its troop presence was made after CODECO clashed with its rival group, Zaire. However, the UN’s expansion of its troop presence in the east is only temporary, as the UN is supposed to be on its way out of the country. Due to repeat accusations of incompetence and failure to combat insecurity, the government of the DRC has told the UN they must withdraw from the nation by the end of the year. The UN has complied with this request, and is in the process of withdrawal from the nation, having already withdrawn thousands of troops. In place of the UN, and a previous intervention force from the East African Community, is the Southern African Development Community (SADC). However, questions have been raised as to the SADC’s ability to properly combat the many insurgencies in the DRC’s east, particularly the M23 rebels in the North Kivu province. The SADC first began operations in January of this year, which subsequently backfired and the SADC, alongside the DRC, has largely been on the defensive since after the M23 launched a strikingly successful counter offensive. The SADC and DRC have further been accused of focusing on the M23, leaving groups like the ADF free to carry out attacks like those in recent weeks.

The Americas

June 10th, 2024 - An eight-person jury in West Palm Beach, Florida, found Chiquita Brands International, which produces and distributes a variety of fruits and previously operated as the United Fruit Company, liable for the funding and support of right-wing paramilitary groups within Colombia on Monday. The organization the company funded was identified as the United Self-defense Forces of Colombia (AUC), Colombia’s premier right-wing paramilitary group, which was responsible for a number of human rights violations. The case was partially built upon a previous ruling with the United States wherein the company admitted to paying the AUC $1.7 million to the organization despite the group having been designated as terrorists in 2001. This admission led to the company being ordered to pay $25 million to the government, leading to criticisms for the relative lax consequences of funding terrorism internationally. During the time of these payments, Chiquita had bought a large amount of land and expanded its operations within Colombia. Chiquita argued that the company was “clearly extorted” by armed groups, with the groups demanding payments in exchange to not interfere with the company’s operations in Colombia.

June 12th, 2024 - Argentina’s Senate passed President Javier Milei’s controversial “Bases Law” on Wednesday, over a month after the bill passed through the Chamber of Deputies and followed a deadlocked vote in the Senate alongside a large-scale protest just outside the government building. For much of the day, the Argentine Senate was locked in a 36-36 tie for those who stood against the bill and those who supported it. The tie was eventually broken by Vice President Victoria Villarruel who supported the bill resulting in resounding boos from Kirchnerist senators. Senators will now vote on the individual articles of the Bases Law before it will be sent back to the Chamber of Deputies for approval due to alterations made by the Senate during the debate. Finally, the bill will be sent to Milei himself who is likely to approve it but maintains the ability to veto the entirety of the bill or veto portions of the bill and return it to Congress with requested changes. The Bases Law seeks to address a number of economic issues within Argentina and revive the nation’s struggling economy. The bill seeks to significantly deregulate the Argentine market, cut government spending, privatize a number of government owned companies, and grant Milei further power in fields such as the economic, administrative, financial, and energy sectors for one year.

June 12th, 2024 - Reports of an explosion and exchanges of fire between armed fighters and authorities in Jamundi, located in Valle del Cauca in southern Colombia, which is known for the heavy presence of the FARC-EMC, were reported early Wednesday morning. The violence reportedly began at around 05:30 local time when an explosion rocked the center of the municipality, according to civilians at the scene. Following the explosion, reports of gunfire emerged from the municipality, which was previously the site of a large-scale assault by members of the FARC-EMC. At least three people were wounded in the attacks, including a non-commissioned officer, a police officer, and a civilian. Another explosive attack was reported around 06:50 local time when a motorcycle laden with explosives detonated near a park located in the town center. At 12:15 local time, another attack was reported. Two suspects on a motorcycle threw a hand grenade at a police station within the municipality, according to a police officer at the scene. In response to the attacks, the mayor of Cali, the capital of Valle del Cauca, offered a 100 million peso (about 24,600 USD) reward for information which resulted in the arrest of those behind the motorcycle bomb. Furthermore, Cali’s mayor’s office stated that an additional 100 police and soldiers will be sent to Jamundi.

Asia and Oceania

June 16th, 2024 - The China Coast Guard (CCG) released a statement saying that a coast guard vessel collided with a Philippine resupply ship near Second Thomas Shoal on June 17th. The statement said that the Philippine vessel “ignored many solemn warnings from the Chinese side.” The vessel approached the coast guard vessel “in an unprofessional way, resulting in a collusion.” The CCG also took “control measures against the Philippine ship in accordance with the law.” Control measures usually indicate that the Chinese vessel used water cannons against the resupply ship. Some Philippine news outlets report a slight collusion between the two vessels. However, the Philippine Coast Guard, the Armed Forces of the Philippines, or other government departments have not released a statement regarding the incident.

June 11th, 2024 - New Zealand announced they would send Minister of the Police Mark Mitchell to the Summit on Peace with Ukraine from June 15th to 16th. New Zealand Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters said, “Minister Mitchell is a senior Cabinet Minister and a former Minister of Defence. His travel to Switzerland for this summit demonstrates the New Zealand Government’s continued solidarity with Ukraine and engagement with Ukraine’s ten-point peace formula.” Mitchell will participate in discussions with senior leaders from other countries during the summit held in the town of Bergenstock, Switzerland.

June 12th, 2024 - Thailand’s Constitutional Court will rule on the constitutionality of the Organic Law that governs the Senate elections on June 18th. The session will decide on petitions that six candidates submitted asking the court to determine if four laws contradicted Articles 36 and 107 of the Constitution. Their petitions argued that the articles “encourage political interference” and “would enable wealthy candidates to campaign via the Internet or electronic media,” which would put poorer candidates at a disadvantage. The legal adviser to Thailand’s Prime Minister, Wissanu Krea-ngam, said he had concerns about the accusations caretaker senators made about the district-level elections being marred by irregularities. Wissanu said while the elections had issues, these were minor.

• Sins and strategy: Kenya through the looking glass - Bianca Bridger

• Vietnam reclaiming land in the South China Sea - Evan Berridge

• Somalia’s path to recovery - Sebastien Gray

• China negotiating with Myanmar rebels - Joaquin Camarena

• Russian peacekeepers fully withdraw from Artsakh - Atlas

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