The Atlas Newsletter - Volume 70

Monday, June 24th, 2024

Good morning everyone,

It’s been a busy week for the world so let’s jump right in today.

In Europe, Russia reinforces it’s air fleet, a US Army Staff Sergeant is arrested in Russia, and more than 15 people were killed in a mass shooting in Russia.

Over in the Middle East, Armenia issues a recognition of Palestine, the IDF approves plans to invade Lebanon, and Iraqi militants launch an attack against a US base.

Meanwhile, in Africa, the UN reports a regional expansion to the Sudan War, Rwanda requests support fighting foreign insurgencies, and Wagner suffers a setback in Mali.

In the Americas, Ecuador breaks ground on the nation’s newest prison, the Argentine government makes an announcement, and the US suspends the imports of avocados from a Mexican state.

In Asia and Oceania, the Chinese aircraft carrier continues to train, South Korea fires on North Korea - again, Japan is hit with a cyberattack, and CNAS releases it’s drone study for Taiwan.

It’s just another day at the office. Let's dive in:

- Joshua Paulo, Sebastien Gray, Trent Barr, & the Atlas team

Japan Passes Political Funds Reform; Opposition Skeptical

June 19th, 2024: (3 Minute Read) The LDP is currently embroiled in a slush funds scandal that has significantly damaged public trust in both the party and in Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s administration. The scandal began when it was exposed that several members of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s cabinet had been accepting funds “off the book” during fundraisers and other events. These donations, which went unreported, caused immense distrust for the LDP, threatening to oust them from power. In response, the Diet worked to pass the amended political funds control law before the current parliamentary session ends on Sunday. However, the ripples of such a scandal under Kishida’s leadership have weakened his already fragile position within the party.

The new law lowers the reporting threshold for fundraising party ticket sales from 200,000 yen (US $1,260.21) to 50,000 yen (US $315.05). Initially, the LDP proposed reducing it to 100,000 yen, but Kishida yielded to Komeito’s request for a more significant reduction. With this new change, critics argue that the new rule still allows politicians to collect large sums of money by holding fundraising events more frequently, offering a backdoor work around to still maintain “off book” slush funds.

The law also mandates other transparency measures, such as the disclosure of policy activity funds for up to 10 years. However, this point lacks a specific implementation timeline. Kishida has stated that details will be considered at a later date. Notably, the new rules do not ban corporate donations to political parties, a significant source of funding for the LDP. Critics see this as a major loophole that perpetuates the risk of financial misconduct.

The primary opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDP; Rikken-minshuto), submitted a no-confidence motion against Kishida’s cabinet, which failed the same day despite support from all the opposition parties.

CDP leader Kenta Izumi criticized Kishida for not taking responsibility for the slush fund scandal, arguing that the new law does not go far enough to resolve issues of money influencing politics.

The Japan Innovation Party (JIP; Nippon Ishin No Kai), the second-largest opposition faction, initially supported the bill. However, they reversed their stance, voting against it in the House of Councillors, and accusing the LDP of not fully including their agreed-upon measures – to include stricter rules for policy activity funds.

Party leader Nobuyuki Baba attacked Kishida for failing to include reform to the ¥1 million ($6,340) monthly allocation every lawmaker receives to pay for various expenses, including research, postage, and transportation. The LDP has pushed this issue back, not including it in this parliamentary session, destroying the tentative support JIP provided. JIP also submitted a nonbinding motion to censure Kishida, but the move was rejected.

Kishida has expressed his reluctance to implement more stringent regulations beyond the revised law, such as a total ban on fundraising. He emphasized the necessity of money in politics, dismissing the idea of banning all fundraising activities as unrealistic.

During his first parliamentary debate in office, Kishida defended the revised law, touting it as a measure to enhance transparency in political fundraising and restore public trust. “I don’t think our work on political reform finishes with the new bill,” he said. “All politicians must persevere in their efforts to restore trust in politics.”

Kishida has also conceded to the Komeito party, the LDP’s junior coalition partner, to ensure the bill’s passage as he faces reelection in September for LDP president. This concession caused temporary discord within the LDP, with prominent members like former Prime Minister Taro Aso and Secretary General Toshimitsu Motegi distancing themselves from Kishida, harming his reelection bid.

The Kishida administration’s approval ratings have plummeted in the wake of the scandal. A recent Asahi Shimbun poll indicated that only 19 percent of respondents support Kishida’s cabinet, down from 24 percent the previous month. 84 percent of respondents also believe the LDP will not make any serious changes to the funding structure.

For now, the political landscape remains turbulent, with the revised law failing to satisfy opposition demands for serious reform. The LDP’s reliance on corporate donations and alleged loopholes in the political funding laws continue to attract widespread criticism from both the populace and the opposition parties. Questions have been raised about the effectiveness of the new legislation and mistrust remains high in Japanese politics. As Kishida navigates these challenges, his ability to restore public support and maintain party cohesion under his leadership will be crucial in the lead-up to the LDP’s presidential election in September.

Europe

June 22nd, 2024 - Amid significant losses since the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Russia’s United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) has delivered a new batch of Su-34 Fullback fighter jets to the Russian Air Force. Recent reports indicate that the Russian Aerospace Forces have lost 34 Su-34s in combat. The latest delivery, from the Novosibirsk Aviation Plant, followed a series of factory tests. While the UAC did not specify the number of aircraft delivered, photos and videos suggest that two Su-34s were included in this batch. This marks the second delivery of Su-34s in 2024, with a previous batch of two aircraft delivered in April, bringing the total to four units this year. The newly delivered jets were equipped with electronic warfare (EW) pods resembling the L-175 Khibiny series, designed to jam enemy air defense systems. The Su-34 plays a crucial role in Russia’s battlefield interdiction and standoff glide bomb strikes. Since May, Su-34s have been recorded using UMPB D-30SN glide bombs against Ukrainian targets, showcasing their extended range and enhanced strike capabilities. Despite losses, the ongoing production and deployment of Su-34s underscore their strategic importance in Russia’s efforts to gain and hold territory in the ongoing conflict.

June 19th, 2024 - A United States Army staff sergeant, Gordon Black, has been sentenced to three years and nine months in a Russian penal colony for stealing 10,000 rubles ($113) from his Russian lover's purse and threatening her life on Wendesday. The staff sergeant was originally arrested in early May in Vladivostok, Primorsky Krai, located near the Russian-Chinese border. Black had originally met his lover, Alexandra Vashchuk, while deployed in South Korea. After Black was ordered to return to Fort Cavazos, Texas, he instead flew to China and then Russia to reunite with Vashchuk, a trip that the Pentagon stated violated official military guidelines. Black was arrested following an argument with Vashchuk; the staff sergeant stole the money and choked her. After the argument, Vashchuk filed a police report regarding the incident, ultimately leading to Black's arrest. Black denied intending to kill his lover, stating that he was acting in self-defense after Vashchuk, who had consumed half a bottle of vodka, attacked him. Black further claimed he only took the money in order to check into a hotel and later paid Vashchuk $500 through an acquaintance prior to his arrest. Vashchuk denied ever receiving the money. Prosecutors painted a different picture, alleging that Black had entered Vashchuk's apartment and strangled her before taking the money. Due to the severity of the crimes, prosecutors requested a full four years in prison for Black, while the defense asked that Black be acquitted on all charges.

June 24th, 2024 - Over 15 people were killed in a mass shooting in Dagestan, a republic within Russia located near the Caucasus Mountains. The attacks targeted two Orthodox churches, a synagogue, and a traffic police post in what the Russian National Anti-Terrorist Committee have declared a terrorist attack. One church and the synagogue caught fire while authorities reported at least five gunmen were “liquidated” amid the attacks. No group has yet taken responsibility for the attacks, however, The Russian News Agency (TASS), a Russian state-owned news outlet, reported that one Dagestani official had been arrested due to his son’s alleged involvement in the attacks.

Middle East

June 18th, 2024 - Amidst rising tensions between Israel and Hezbollah, the IDF announced that they had “approved operational plans for an offensive in Lebanon,” adding that “decisions were made to continue accelerating the readiness of the forces on the ground.” The IDF’s announcement has drastically raised fears of a war between Hezbollah and Israel, which would be a massive expansion to the Israel-Gaza war that has been ongoing since October 7th. Limited clashes between Hezbollah and Israel have been occurring since October 8th, with outside entities cautioning against a regional expansion to the war.

June 22nd, 2024 - Three drones were shot down by US air defenses at the al-Tanf US coalition base in Homs Province, Syria. The drones originated from Iraqi territory. The attack, reported by the Syrian news company the North Press Agency, came just a few days after the Iraqi Resistance Coordination Committee announced that they had agreed to “continue to strive for the country’s sovereignty,” raising worries of a possible resumption by Iran-backed militias in Iraq and Syria resuming attacks against US forces. Attacks against US forces had been frequently occurring since the beginning of the Israel-Gaza war, but had been halted several months ago after some severe return strikes from US forces.

June 21st, 2024 - The Armenian Ministry of Foreign Affairs has issued a statement declaring the Armenian recognition of the State of Palestine. Armenia’s announcement makes them the fifth nation to recognize an independent Palestinian state within a month. Armenia follows Ireland, Spain, and Norway who issued their official recognitions on May 28th, and Slovenia who issued their recognition on June 4th. With Armenia’s recognition, 146 UN member states have officially recognized Palestine. For comparison, 163 UN member states have recognized Israel.

Africa

June 17th, 2024 - According to a UN experts report, the Sudanese paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) is using the neighbouring Central African Republic (CAR) not only as a "supply line" for their operations in Sudan, but also as a recruiting ground in order to bolster their ranks. the RSF has been using the Am Dafok area of the CAR as a logistics and supply hub in order to increase its operability in Sudan, and allow for better movement. Am Dafok is a town which lies upon the border between Sudan and the CAR in South Darfur, and has acted in the past as an area of economic prominence. The RSF first seized control of the Sudanese side of the border in June of 2023. The use of CAR territory by the RSF represents a regional spillover of the war that outside entities had been afraid of. The war in Sudan has already had devastating effects upon regional security, in particular because of the massive flow of Sudanese refugees that have left Sudan to neighbouring countries.

June 19th, 2024 - Jama’a Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin, more often known as JNIM, has claimed responsibility for an IED attack which took place on June 11th in Niono, Mali, that killed three mercenaries of the Russian Wagner PMC. The attack comes as a part of a much wider offensive by JNIM against several nations in the Sahel, most prominently Burkina Faso and Mali. Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger, and several other African nations have brought in Wagner and/or other Russian military elements in an attempt to deal with their rampant insurgencies that plague the nation. Mali brought in Wagner troops after expelling France from the nation, after Mali accused France of failing to deal with Mali’s insurgency. Since Wagner has arrived in the nation, rife human rights abuses have followed as Wagner takes an aggressive approach toward tackling the insurgency by JNIM and other militant organizations in the country.

June 19th, 2024 - The European Commissioner for International Partnerships of the EU, Jutta Urpilainean, has announced that she expects a Rwandan request for additional support for its anti-insurgency campaign in Mozambique to be approved. Rwanda has requested additional funds as it expands its deployment to Mozambique by an additional 2,500 soldiers. The exact amount being granted by the EU is unknown, however Bloomberg reported that the EU was considering providing Rwanda with 40 million euros, meant to purchase non-lethal equipment for Rwandan forces and finance airlifts to and from Mozambique. Rwanda has been combating insurgency in Mozambique’s Cabo Delgado province, which has large gas reserves and is important for Mozambique’s economy.

The Americas

June 21st, 2024 - Ecuador began construction on the country's newest maximum security prison on Friday, marking a significant step in President Daniel Noboa's promise to address the nation's security concerns. The prison, named El Encuentro and located in the municipality of Santa Elena in the province of the same name, will utilize artificial intelligence in both the prison's controls and surveillance systems, marking the first instance of AI being incorporated into the Ecuadorian prison system. The prison is set to cost Ecuador $52 million dollars and will hold an estimated 800 of the country's most dangerous criminals who are more likely to escape confinement. President Noboa announced the start of the construction, claiming that Ecuador's prisons system had been "hijacked" by criminal elements who had turned them into their "centers of operations." The construction of the new prison is a part of Noboa's efforts to crack down on crime across the country, a key promise the president made while campaigning. Originally, Noboa suggested building "prison ships" off the coast of Ecuador to house the country's most dangerous criminals. This plan has seemingly been sidelined in favor of the construction of traditional prisons, a plan which would likely assist Ecuador over "prison ships" as the country currently faces prison overcrowding with approximately 31,300 people incarcerated in prisons only fit to house 27,500. Two other "mega-prisons" are already under construction and are set to be completed before Ecuador receives the barges intended to be used as "prison ships."

June 18th, 2024 - Argentine President Javier Milei's government announced that they would begin to undertake similar policies employed by El Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele in regards to targeting criminal structures within Argentina. El Salvador's model for addressing crime has drawn severe criticism from human rights organizations. Despite criticism, a number of Latin American countries have unveiled their own plans to implement similar strategies in their own war against criminal elements, notably with the construction of their own high-security prisons in order to address issues such as prison overcrowding and the control criminal organizations have over prison systems. Argentina itself faces overcrowding, with their own prison system only able to handle approximately 88,600 people, while the current number of those in prison stands at just under 118,000 as of 2022, according to the World Prison Brief. The construction of a similar prison would significantly aid the Argentine government in its efforts to address issues within the nation's prison system. This announcement to pursue similar policies enacted by President Bukele comes after Argentine Minister of Security Patricia Bullrich arrived in El Salvador on Sunday, touring the nation's "super prison,” the Terrorism Confinement Center (CECOT). The visit focuses specifically on El Salvador's approach to prison management, further hinting at Argentina's interest in constructing their own "super prison" utilizing key policies and guidelines that are used for El Salvador's CECOT.

June 17th, 2024 - The United States halted the importation of avocados from Mexico's western Michoacan state following the US embassy in Mexico issuing a level four travel advisory against the state. This advisory comes after two American inspectors working for the USDA were detained amid a demonstration in Paracho city. The detention of USDA inspectors led to the United States issuing a security protocol that temporarily suspended the import of avocados from the state, along with a number of other security measures for Americans in Michoacan. Sources have stated that the two USDA employees were beaten by those who detained them; however, some avocado producers have denied this claim. While exports have been barred in Michoacan, the largest exporter of fruit, distributors have stated that exports can continue in other states, such as Jalisco, which is the second largest producer and contributes both domestically and through export. Mexico's avocado production is largely under the control of cartels, with a number of murders attributed to the production and exportation of the fruit, leading analysts to suggest the detention of the USDA inspectors may be connected to Mexico’s cartels.

Asia and Oceania

June 24th, 2024 - Imagery on social media showed the Type 003/Fujian aircraft carrier alongside a pier conducting a likely lateral resupply at Jiangnan Shipyard in Shanghai. It is likely that the Fujian is in the early stages of preparing for its next sea trial. Another picture shows a mockup of the KJ-600 carrier-borne Airborne Early Warning and Control aircraft on the flight deck.

June 21st, 2024 - South Korean forces fired warning shots at North Korean troops that briefly crossed the Military Demarcation Line (MDL), marking the third time in less than two weeks, according to the Joint Chiefs of Staff. All three incursions are believed to be accidental as North Korean soldiers continue to carry out work to increase fortifications along the border.

June 21st, 2024 - Japan’s space agency, JAXA, has been targeted by multiple cyberattacks since last year, but officials confirmed Friday that no sensitive information was compromised. Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi reported that JAXA has faced several cyberattacks since late last year. The agency has investigated the breaches, shut down affected networks, and confirmed that no classified information regarding rockets, satellites, or national security was accessed. Hayashi emphasized Japan’s commitment to strengthening its cybersecurity measures. Despite Japan’s accelerated military buildup in response to China’s growing military strength, experts believe Tokyo will continue relying on the United States to launch long-range missiles. Defense Minister Minoru Kihara said that the cyberattacks on JAXA did not impact his ministry but emphasized ongoing vigilance. Education and Science Minister Masahito Moriyama also confirmed that no actual damage resulted from the attacks. JAXA is collaborating with the government’s cybersecurity team to implement preventive measures

June 22nd, 2024 - The Center for a New American Security (CNAS) has released a report titled “Swarms Over the Strait,” emphasizing the crucial role drones could play in potential conflicts in the Indo-Pacific, particularly between China and Taiwan. Drawing from recent conflicts in Libya, Nagorno-Karabakh, and Ukraine, the report underscores the need for the United States and Taiwan to update their drone strategies for large-scale warfare. Authored by Stacie Pettyjohn, Hannah Dennis, and Molly Campbell, the report asserts that while drones are integral to modern warfare, they must be integrated with traditional military forces. The study also highlights the vast expanse of the Indo-Pacific region as a significant challenge, recommending the U.S. develop long-range, high-endurance drones. Key recommendations for the U.S. include: building a diverse drone fleet; pre-positioning drones in Taiwan; developing advanced drone tactics and training; strengthening counter-drone measures; and enhancing industrial capacity and export policies. For Taiwan, the report advises prioritizing affordable drones, integrating drones with ground forces, enhancing training and collaboration, and developing robust counter-drone defenses.

• The New Cold War: What Africa’s Political Shifts Mean for US Influence- Bianca Bridger

• Taiwan maintains fleet of AH-1W SuperCobras - Evan Berridge

• Canada preparing to withdraw 45,000 citizens from Lebanon - Sebastien Gray

• China assisting North Korea to avoid sanctions - Joaquin Camarena

• Hezbollah releases video of potential Israeli targets - Atlas

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