The Atlas Newsletter - Volume 71

Monday, July 1st, 2024

Good morning everyone,

Happy Canada Day! This is just a reminder that next week this newsletter is going to look very different. Thank you for joining us on this year and a half long journey and here’s to many more years. If you would like to continue to follow the work of the authors, Joshua Paulo, Sebastien Gray, and Trent Barr, you can find us on the Atlas News website. So with that being said, let’s jump right in today.

In Europe, Spain applies to join South Africa’s ICJ case, Hungary’s Orban forms a political coalition in the European Parliament, and the Israeli embassy in Serbia is attacked.

Over in the Middle East, the Arab League drops its designation of Hezbollah as a terror organization, and Iran holds an election while also promising enhanced cooperation with Armenia.

Meanwhile, in Africa, Kenya finally begins their deployment to Haiti, and the US House of Representatives seeks to pressure Uganda on its “Anti-Homosexuality Law.”

In the Americas, the Bolivian military launched an unsuccessful coup against ruling President Arce, defendants in the “Panama Papers” case were acquitted of all charges, and Argentina's Chamber of Deputies passed President Javier Milei’s controversial “Bases Law.”

In Asia and Oceania, South Korea holds a live fire exercise, China accidentally launches a rocket, and the Philippines battle an insurgency.

All in all, it’s just another day at the office. Let's dive in:

- Joshua Paulo, Sebastien Gray, Trent Barr, & the Atlas team

China Addresses Taiwanese “Independence Secessionists”

June 21st 2024: (4 Minute Read) China’s Taiwan Affairs Office (TAO) held a press conference to announce new “Opinions on Punishing, in Accordance with the Law, The Crimes of Secession, and Incitement to Secession Committed by Hardcore ‘Taiwan Independence’ Elements.” Officials from the Ministries of Justice and Public Security, along with the Supreme People’s Court and the Supreme People’s Procuratorate, joined the press conference to announce the new opinions.

The officials from the four Chinese ministries, judicial organs, and TAO discussed the law and answered questions asked by reporters from various state-owned news outlets. Supreme People’s Court Trial Committee member Ma Yan provided a brief explanation of the opinions and their contents during the first part of the conference. The second half of the conference consisted of the five officials answering questions that provided further context and information to the opinions. However, two of the answers that the Chinese officials provided stood out since the information was not included in the document.

The most significant answer the officials gave during the question-and-answer period was outlining the statute of limitations for each crime. The Ministry of Public Security Legal Affairs Bureau’s Deputy Director, Sun Ping, said that there are “different periods of recourse for the crimes of secession and incitement of secession, depending on the circumstances of the crime.” The crime of inciting the secession of Taiwan is five years, but the Chinese government has 15 years to charge the individuals. China can sentence Taiwanese individuals to death if they are found guilty of secession, and the country has 20 years to charge individuals under the Anti-Secession Law. However, Sun also highlighted that China can still charge Taiwanese with crimes under the law if the crimes are “particularly egregious and the consequences particularly serious,” if the 20-year statute of limitations has passed, and if the Supreme People’s Procuratorate has approved the process.

The TAO spokesperson, Chen Binhua, answered the question regarding the possibility of including more people than the 10 Taiwan independence activists previously announced by China. Chen said that Chinese judicial organs and law enforcement “will resolutely take punitive measures and severely punish them according to the law” against “hardcore ‘Taiwan independence’ elements” who committed or incited secession. He “advised” Taiwanese independence supporters to “recognize the situation” in the face of the legal punishments for inciting secession and to “change their ways.”

The document began by listing the various judicial organs and ministries involved in investigating and persecuting crimes in China. It then discussed the rationale for the opinions, such as to punish the crimes of secession and incitement to secession by “Taiwan independence intransigents” and to “safeguard national sovereignty.” The document said that the Ministries of Justice, Public Security, and State Security, along with the Supreme People’s Court and Procuratorate, created the opinions on May 26, 2024.

The opinions contains 21 articles separated into four chapters: general requirements, accreditation of fixed crimes, correct application of procedures, and supplementary provisions. The general requirements chapter says that the “secessionist activities” of a small number of Taiwan independence activists “seriously jeopardized the peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait.” These actions undermined the common interests of compatriots on both sides of the Taiwan Strait and damaged the interests of the Chinese nation. The ministries and judicial organs will use their functions to “severely punish” the independence activists for their secession activities and encouragement of secession “according to the law,” as well as to safeguard national sovereignty, unity, and territorial integrity.

The second section of the document described the various actions that would be considered crimes of secession or incitement of secession, separated into 11 articles. Furthermore, the articles contained the various sentences that the Chinese government could hand out to individuals found guilty of secession. For example, individuals found guilty of secession activities could receive the death penalty, while those who actively participated in them can receive between three and ten years in prison. The section also specifies that individuals who evade the investigation or trial will not be subject to the statute of limitations.

The third section outlines how Chinese law enforcement agencies and judicial organs will handle the suspects and trials. The section contains seven articles. The most significant article is how the opinion allows the Supreme People’s Court to try individuals accused of secession or of inciting secession in absentia. The section also contains two articles related to how the court will handle cases if Taiwanese individuals stop independence activities. The first article allows an individual’s case to be revoked if they “voluntarily” give up their stance on Taiwanese independence and work to mitigate the harm done by their past actions. The other article says that the court will show leniency to individuals if they confess to their crimes and accept punishment.

The section also allows Chinese law enforcement agencies to issue warrants and “take effective measures” to pursue cases against individuals accused of “Taiwanese independence activities.” The last section of the document, the supplementary provisions, contains two articles. The first article said this document would cover other crimes against national security allegedly committed by Taiwanese independence activists. The other article stated that the opinions contained in this document would be effective from the date of publication.

Europe

June 28th, 2024 - Spain has officially filed an application to the International Court of Justice (ICJ) to intervene in South Africa's case against Israel, which accuses them of committing genocide in Gaza, only three weeks after having declared their intention to do so. Spain’s intervention in the case follows their recognition of Palestinian statehood on May 28th, exactly one month later. Spain officially recognized Palestinian independence alongside Ireland and Norway. Spain’s intervention in the ICJ case, on the side of South Africa, makes them the first nation in both the EU and NATO to intervene in the case. Germany has stated their intention to do so, on the side of Israel, but has yet to officially file for intervention.

June 29th, 2024 - A man who shot a police officer guarding Israel’s embassy in Serbia with a crossbow was killed on Saturday in what the nation’s President, Aleksandar Vucic, has stated was a terrorist attack. The officer was shot in the neck but remains in stable condition after being transported to a hospital and receiving treatment. The Israeli Embassy stated that no embassy staff were wounded in the attack. The attacker approached the officer to ask where a museum was several times before drawing a crossbow and shooting the officer. The attacker was identified by the president as Salahudin Zujovic, a Serbian Muslim convert who launched that attack alongside one accomplice who remains on the run. The two had been under investigation by Serbian security agencies but had not been suspected of planning an attack, which allowed the pair to remain free and avoid detention.

July 1st, 2024 - Prime Minister of Hungary, Viktor Orbán, announced a new alliance in the European Parliament with the right-wing populist Freedom Party (FPO) and Czech Action of Dissatisfied Citizens (ANO) on Sunday. The new alliance comes ahead of Hungary’s ascension to the presidential office of the European Parliament which begins on July 1. The alliance, named the “Patriots for Europe,” comes amid a overall win for Europe’s right-wing parties with Orbán’s party cementing themselves in first place with over 50 percent of the vote while the FPO similarily won first place albeit with only 25% of the vote, closely followed by the conservative Österreichische Volkspartei who held 24 percent. ANO achieved a similar result to their Austrian counterparts, winning first place with 26 percent of the vote followed by SPOLU, a moderate right-wing alliance, who won 22 percent. In order to form an official group within the European Parliament, the three parties must first secure parliament members from at least four other European nations.

Middle East

June 30th, 2024 - Iran is officially going to hold a runoff presidential election between its top two candidates after no candidate successfully secured the necessary 50 percent margin required to win election in Iran. The election was held on June 28th, with the results having been confirmed as of June 30th. Masoud Pezeshkian, the sole reformist candidate, was the most popular, securing 42.45 percent of the vote. Saeed Jalili, an ultraconservative hardliner, came in second, securing 38.61 percent of the vote. An election will take place between the top two candidates on July 5th in order to decide who will ultimately win the election.

June 29th 2024 - The Arab League has officially retracted its designation of Hezbollah as a terrorist organization. The announcement came on Saturday, June 29th, after a meeting between the Arab League's Assistant Secretary-General, Hossam Zaki, and Muhammad Raad, the President of the Loyalty to the Resistance Bloc, Hezbollah's political party, the day prior. Zaki stated the Arab League arrived at the decision that "the designation of Hezbollah as a terrorist organization no longer applies" because "the Arab League does not maintain terrorist lists and does not actively seek to designate entities in such a manner." While Zaki's statements do not imply that the decision is inherently a change in the Arab League's policy towards Hezbollah, it certainly opens up the possibility for such change.

June 28th, 2024 - The Iranian Ambassador to Armenia, Mehdi Sobhani, expressed Iran's willingness to increase cooperation with Armenia. Since Armenia's independence after the fall of the Soviet Union, Armenia and Iran have held close relations, establishing themselves as strategic partners for each other despite their ideological differences. Sobhani expressed Iran’s willingness to strengthen cooperation “in all areas,” including militarily, however stated the level of cooperation would be dependent on the Armenian government.

Africa

June 25th, 2024 - Kenyan police have officially arrived in Port-au-Prince, Haiti, for the start of their long-awaited deployment in the Caribbean nation. The deployment comes after months of legal battles and other delays that have prevented it until now. Kenya heads the force for the Multinational Security Support (MSS) mission, a deployment of police officers from Kenya alongside several other nations. The mission, which is technically led by the US, is meant to support Haiti's police in their battle against the myriad of gangs that plague the nation. The gangs have been responsible for thousands of homicides in recent years, at a rate that is sharply increasing. So far in 2024, more than 2,500 people have been killed by gang violence. The first job of the MSS will be to secure essential infrastructure within and around the capital; however, it is unclear at this moment where exactly the Kenyan police will begin. With much of Port-au-Prince, Haiti's capital, being controlled by gangs, there is much to do. The deployment was supposed to have begun in May, however was delayed due to a supreme shortage of mission critical equipment in Haiti, as well as the living quarters of the MSS having yet to have been completed. This delay followed several months of other delays, largely from legal challenges within Kenya, as well as increasing insecurity on the ground.

June 28th, 2024 - Several lawmakers in the US House of Representatives are introducing a resolution that seeks to condemn and put pressure on Uganda to repeal the "Anti-Homosexuality Law" that it passed last year. The law seeks to instill harsher punishments for what it refers to as "aggravated homosexuality." It defines aggravated homosexuality as "homosexual acts committed by anyone infected with HIV or involving children, disabled people or anyone drugged against their will." Beyond this, however, the law also brings about harsher penalties for homosexual acts in general. People found to have had gay sex will receive life in prison, while homosexual relationships carry a seven-year prison term. It further outlaws simply identifying as gay, emphasizing the “duty” of the community to report LGBT individuals. The resolution is led by Representatives Mark Takano (D-CA) and Joyce Beatty (D-OH). The two have called for the continuation of a series of sanctions that have been placed against Uganda and Ugandan officials. Beyond the sanctions already in place, the resolution supports decreasing US aid to Uganda. The US gives Uganda approximately $1 billion USD annually, primarily for military and health purposes.

The Americas

June 26th, 2024 - Members of the Bolivian military attempted to overthrow President Luis Arce’s government on Wednesday. Soldiers stormed the Presidential Palace at Murillo Square under the direction of former Commanding General of the Bolivian Army Juan Jose Zuniga who announced a “new cabinet” would be formed. The coup follows General Zuniga’s controversial threat that he would arrest former President Evo Morales if he ran for president, a threat which led Arce to remove the general from his position just a day prior to the attempted coup. At 1:57 p.m. local time, President Arce denounced what he termed as “irregular mobilizations” of the Bolivian Army in the nation’s capital of Sucre. Shortly after this statement, a small number of military units entered Plaza Murillo where both the Presidential Palace and Bolivia’s congress are located. Shortly after the arrival of the general and soldiers serving under him, Zuniga stated his forces took to the plaza in “annoyance” with the current government before continuing, stating that forces “are going to take over.” After speaking to the press, Zuniga’s forces broke the door leading to the presidential palace where Arce was located before entering alongside the general. What followed was a tense standoff wherein the president ordered the general to disband his forces, a demand which was ultimately refused. Ultimately the coup failed as Zuniga fled the plaza alongside his soldiers and was arrested hours later. Currently 21 participants in the coup have been arrested.

June 28th, 2024 - Defendants in the controversial "Panama Papers Case," a scandal that revealed how a number of well-off businesspeople, celebrities, and politicians managed to avoid taxes through the use of shell companies and offshore bank accounts, were cleared of all charges on Friday in a sudden shift in the case. Judge Baloísa Marquínez, the Second Liquidating Judge of Criminal Cases who presided over the case, acquitted the 28 individuals being tried for their alleged roles regarding the firm, citing the lack of ability to identify illicit payments through the shell companies. The judge further cited the leaked documents themselves, stating that the evidence, which contained "electronic evidence presented in paper format," did not "comply with the chain of custody,” which requires all evidence to have thorough documentation regarding who had access to the evidence and where it was stored. The judge further terminated criminal action "due to the death of one of the individuals involved in this process" before lifting all security measures for the defendants. The Judicial Body ended its statement announcing the dropping of charges by stating that other forms of evidence were "neither sufficient nor conclusive to establish the criminal responsibility of the accused."

June 28th, 2024 - Argentina's Chamber of Deputies passed President Javier Milei’s controversial “Bases Law” on Friday morning, weeks after the bill passed through the Argentine Senate. The bill is now on its way to Milei to pass or veto. The bill previously passed through the Senate in early May, but returned to the lower house of Congress after modifications made by the Senate. The Chamber of Deputies debated the law for a staggering 13 hours amid demands from opposition lawmakers to drop a number of privatizations of government-owned businesses such as Aerolíneas Argentinas, The Mail Service, and Radio y Televisión Argentina. Among the changes that will be made to the Bases Law is the reinstitution of income tax, with single workers making more than 1.8 million Argentine pesos ($1,976 USD) a month, and married workers with two children earning 2.2 million Argentine pesos (US$ 2,416) a month having to pay between five to 35 percent taxes.

Asia and Oceania

June 26th, 2024 - The Republic of Korea Marine Corps (ROKMC) conducted a live-fire exercise at its bases on Yeonpyeong and Baekryeong Islands. The exercise marks the first time the ROKMC units conducted a full-scale exercise in the Northwest Islands (NWI) in seven years and comes after South Korea suspended the September 2018 North-South Agreement. The Northwestern Island Defense Command (NIDC) said the live-fire exercise occurred in the afternoon of the 26^th and involved the Marine Corps’ 6^th Brigade and the Yeonpyeong Unit. The weapon systems the Marine units used during the training were K-9 Self-Propelled Howitzers (SPH) and the K239 Chunmoo Multiple Rocket Launcher Systems (MRLS). The units also fired the Spike Non-Line of Sight (NLOS) Anti-Tank Guided Missile (ATGM), and Bigung Surface-to-Ship Rocket (SSR) systems. The systems fired a total of 290 rounds at targets in waters southwest of the islands and south of the Northern Limit Line (NLL). The ROKMC said the exercise was “defensive” and that the U.N. Command Military Armistice Commission observed the drill.

June 30th, 2024 - Initial reports indicated that a Tianlong-3 rocket had crashed into the mountains near residential housing after a static engine test inadvertently caused ignition and launch of the medium-lift orbital launch vehicle. The rocket landed 1.5km southwest of the test stand in Gongyi City, Henan Province. Beijing Tianbing Technology officials have claimed that residents in the town were evacuated before the test launch and that there have been no injuries or deaths. This was the first of four test launches for the Tianlong-3, with the others running every month until November. It is not currently clear how far back this mishap will push the joint military-commercial venture.

June 28th, 2024 - The Philippines Army reported the death of seven members of the communist New Peoples Army insurgent group in the municipality of Pantabangan in the Nueva Ecija province on Thursday. Recent attacks in the past two days by militants of the Marxist-Leninist-Maoist group resulted in the killing of a leader of the indigenous people, Emong Kantala, in Sen. Clashes between the military and the coalition of leftist guerillas that make up the insurgency have been exchanged for decades since 1969. An estimated 60,000 people on each side have been killed in the insurgency, according to the Philippine Army; the conflict is considered to be one of the longest ongoing in the world. The NPA is represented in politics by the National Democratic Front of the Philippines, which itself falls under the National Democracy movement.

• Mauritania’s Ghazouani wins presidential election - Bianca Bridger

• Ramstein Flag 24 NATO exercises in Greece - Konstantinos K

• Understanding Hezbollah Part I: Hezbollah’s origins and ideology - Sebastien Gray

• North Korea convenes 8th plenary session - Joaquin Camarena

• Japanese Diet enacts political funds reform - Joshua Paulo

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