January 8, 2021 Newsletter #9.0

Good news everyone,

Both the app and website are almost complete and should be rolling out relatively soon. That is pretty much it for updates this week. I hope everyone is enjoying the new year. Keeping this short and sweet.Now for the news...

TOP STORY

MASS CIVIL UNREST ERUPTS IN KAZAKHSTAN

Protests began to form on January 2 against spiking fuel prices, which doubled from $0.14 to $0.28 per liter as a result of the government lifting fuel price caps for the New Year. While this jump may not seem like much to some of you, keep in mind the Average Annual Household Income per Capita for the country only sits around $3,300. The first city to see demonstrations take place was Zhanaozen, where protestors called for fuel price stabilization by local officials, which were reportedly ignored. By the next day, protests and demonstrations spread across the country to several other cities, most notably the capital of Nur Sultan and the country’s largest city Almaty, where demonstrators marched or set up encampments outside of government offices.

By this point the grievances shifted to including overall dissatisfaction with the government over economic issues and income inequality. On January 4 there was a flashpoint when the protests shifted into rioting and civil unrest, leading to intense clashes with police and national guard forces, mostly in Almaty. On the morning of January 5, the government had resigned and by that night chaos ensued with protestors arming themselves and attacking government offices in major cities. Armed clashes persisted, leading Kazakhstan's President to request assistance from the Collective Security Treaty Organization, where Russia is leading a peacekeeping deployment along with forces from Armenia, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.

On Friday the situation was eerily calm. Smaller, peaceful protests continued in cities around Kazakhstan, but the large-scale protests had appeared to have stopped. The President gave a “shoot to kill without warning” order to security forces, who carried out nighttime “counter-terrorism operations” that would result in armed confrontations with armed militia forces that had appeared amongst the civil unrest. Kazakhstan’s Interior Ministry reported that over the past week 160 people were killed, hundreds were wounded, and over 5,000 people had been detained. Additionally, 18 security force members were said to have been killed with hundreds of others injured. These numbers are expected to rise. As for what is next is unclear. Things appear to have calmed down significantly as Kazakhstan military forces carry out mop-up operations across the country.

Table of Contents

• CONFLICT

  • At Least 200 Killed in Bandit Attacks Across Northern Nigeria

  • Protestors in Chile Release Bees at Presidential Palace

• IRAQ UPDATES

  • Overview of Attacks By Militia Forces Over the Past Week

• CHINA UPDATES

  • US Accuses China of Developing Mind Control Weapons

  • China Claims its Hypersonic Weapons are Heat Seekers

• CURATED ARTICLES

  • North Korea Missile Mishap

CONFLICT

OVER 200 KILLED IN BANDIT ATTACKS ACROSS NORTHERN NIGERIA

By @rose.wars

Over 200 villagers have been killed by gangs of armed bandits roaming Nigeria’s troubled northern region over the past week, survivors told the Associated Press. Up to nine villages suffered through three days of pure terror after the gangs arrived in large numbers on Tuesday evening, many on motorcycles, shooting, killing, and burning down houses as they rampaged through the Anka and Bukkuyum local government areas of Zamfara state.

A villager told media that 10 local men gave their lives in a fierce gun battle with the bandits while trying to protect their community. Authorities are still searching for bodies, some of which were burned or buried, survivors say. The Nigerian military has deployed an aircraft and security forces to the surrounding areas as part of a man hunt for the violent gangs.

Widespread lawless banditry in the northwest and an Islamic extremist insurgency in the northeast have left thousands of innocents dead over the last decade as the Nigerian state are outgunned and outnumbered.

No specific group has claimed responsibility for the violence.

PROTESTORS RELEASE BEES ON CHILEAN PRESIDENTIAL PALACE, RIOT POLICE STUNG

Monday, January 3, 2022: Four beekeepers were detained after setting up 60 beehives consisting of over 10,000 bees around the Chilean Presidential Palace in Santiago to protest for subsidies for honey producers hit hard by the country’s ongoing mega-drought that has been killing local bee populations. Seven riot officers were stung during attempts to remove the hives.

IRAQ UPDATES

This section will be a day by day log of the attacks carried out by Iran-backed militias against targets in Iraq and Syria.

JANUARY 3: BAGHDAD DIPLOMATIC SUPPORT CENTER

Two Iran-backed militia Morad-5 loitering munitions were shot down by American C-RAM systems during an attempted attack on Camp Victory near the Baghdad Airport. The incident came about on the two year assassination anniversary of the IRGC Major General Qasem Soleimani. The drones had “Soleimani's revenge” written on the wing. No casualties reported.

JANUARY 4: BAGHDAD DIPLOMATIC SUPPORT CENTER AND AL ASAD AIRBASE

Militia forces used 240mm rockets to target Camp Victory. Some rockets landed on the runway space of Baghdad's airport while several failed to launch. No casualties were reported.

American C-RAM systems intercepted two Samad-type loitering munitions that were launched at the Al Asad Airbase. No casualties were reported.

JANUARY 5: AL ASAD AIRBASE AND GREEN VILLAGE

American C-RAM systems at Al Asad Airbase engaged 122mm rockets fired by militia members. Above is a good look at the MLR system used to launch the rockets, where the tubes hidden in the roof of a van that can then be angled when needed to be fired. No casualties were reported.

The Green Village Base at the Omar Oil Field in Deir Ezzor, Syria, was struck by several rockets. Minor damage was reported, no casualties. US forces responded by artillery and airstrikes on Iran-backed militia positions in al-Mayadin, Syria.

JANUARY 7: PESHMERGA FRONTLINES

Iran-backed militias were accused of launching several rockets against Peshmerga frontline positions in Kirkuk, Iraq, resulting in no casualties or any serious damage. The attack came as a purported warning against "interfering" in Shia affairs.

CHINA UPDATES

CHINA ACCUSED OF DEVELOPING "BRAIN WEAPONS"

The United States government has sanctioned several Chinese medical and technology firms and institutions, accusing them of researching and developing “brain-control weaponry” for China’s military, according to the Commerce Department. In a statement, Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo said "The scientific pursuit of biotechnology and medical innovation can save lives. Unfortunately, the PRC is choosing to use these technologies to pursue control over its people and its repression of members of ethnic and religious minority groups.” It was not specified what these “brain-control weapons” exactly are, how they are used, or how they are tested. Three documents from the People’s Liberation Army obtained by the Washington Time’s Inside the Ring stated that the technology aims to “attack the enemy’s will to resist, not physical destruction” by “paralyzing and controlling the opponent.” 

CHINA CLAIMS WORLD'S FIRST HEAT SEEKING HYPERSONIC WEAPONS

China claims that it’s hypersonic missiles have infrared homing (heat seeking) abilities, making it a world first for hypersonic weapons and allowing them to lock onto targets. The reliability of China’s hypersonic weapons capabilities are often brought into question, specifically their accuracy and speed duration.

Over the summer, China tested two hypersonic glide vehicles using a fractional orbital bombardment system (FOBS), a combination not seen before. FOBS are warhead delivery systems that essentially achieve low orbit, but purposefully retrograde burn before completing one full orbit so that it bypasses international treaties banning weapons in orbit. Benefits to this are that the trajectory is very fast and very low, being able to avoid radar detection without any range limits.

The tests concerned the United States, who were shocked to say the least, about China’s hypersonic capabilities. The US, Russia, and China are currently locked in a hypersonic arms race, in which the latter two have operational weapons. The US is lagging in this sense, but “operational ability” can be subjective, as a system may be adopted but not preform very well. With this, the true operational capabilities of Russian and Chinese hypersonic weapons are not truly known. The US has hypersonic platforms in development and is not too far behind from achieving full operational capabilities.

CURATED ARTICLES

North Korea’s Sinpo-Class Submarine Suffered Critical Damage During October Missile Launch

By @tessaron_news

 On October 19th, 2021, North Korea shocked the international community when it executed a successful Submarine Launched Ballistic Missile, only the third time for the Hermit Kingdom. With the first being back in 2016 and a number of mixed successes and failures since then. North Korea unveiled this capability only one month after South Korea first launched their SLBM, Hyunmoo 4-4, in September of 2021. Most South Korean, American and Japanese analysts agree that this test has been the most promising in terms of missile ejection, firing, and successful flight time and range. North Korea is the 8th country in the world to successfully conduct an SLBM launch, behind the United States, Russia, China, Britain, France, India, and South Korea. However, the Center for Strategic and International Studies has revealed this week that the “8.24 Yongung” (August 24th Hero) Sinpo-Class Submarine suffered critical damage which landed the sub in dock for repairs for nearly three months. Pictured below; the October 19th Missile Launch and the Pukguksong 5 (l), Pukguksong 1 , and the new SLBM (r) which was apparently fired in this test, on display at the recent Self-Defense 2021 exposition.

Unsuccessful tests and exaggerated performance is no news when it comes to North Korea, as we learned again this week when North Korea claimed that they succeeded in launching their first “Hypersonic Missile”, a feat that the United States, China and Russia are racing to perfect. Japanese Defense officials did in fact admit that this “Hypersonic Missile” did reach speeds in excess of Mach 5, but did not demonstrate maneuverability associated with a glide vehicle.  But what is significant about this most recent SLBM launch is that despite, the three confirmed successful launches in 2016, 2019, and now 2021, the North Koreans still cannot deliver their SLBMs without damaging the submarine, making this “capability”, still a paper tiger. The image below, shows the 8.24 Yongung (August 24th Hero) surfacing with its single launch tube still open immediately after launch, signaling a complete departure from the norms of SLBM launches that can only be reasonably explained by damage to the mast and launch tube. 

The following imagery shows the analysis and basic timeline of repairs made to the 8.24 Yongung following the launch, made by CSIS Beyond Parallel’s analyst, Joseph S. Bermudez Jr. He purports that extensive repairs were done to the mast, where the missile was launched, and to the propulsion system near the stern of the vessel.

On December 13th, the 8.24 Yongung was moved to a secure boat basin where more extensive hull repairs can be made in “drydock”, where it stayed for almost two weeks before being moved back into the submarine pen where it is now probably operational.

In Conclusion, SLBM technology is still very much in its toddler stage for North Korea, while it is among only 8 countries in the world to actually successfully launch one, its past three attempts have shown us that they are still incapable of launching and returning their vessels in a manner that would allow extended operational capability. Not to mention that the 8.24 Yongung is the only experimental SSBN in the North Korean Fleet, which can only carry one missile at a time. I urge our readers to be on the lookout for future North Korean SLBM tests and do not take the results at face value.

END OF NEWSLETTER

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